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Today, only the Australian dollar could be traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. Using the Momentum strategy, I traded the euro and the British pound.
Strong data from the ZEW Institute on business sentiment indices in Germany and the eurozone provided solid support for the euro. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which reflects experts' optimism about the prospects of the German economy, exceeded expectations, strengthening investor confidence in the stability of the eurozone. This, in turn, led to increased demand for the European currency. At the same time, other factors are also playing an important role in supporting the euro. Trump's policy regarding Greenland and the strong pushback from the EU have further boosted demand for risk assets, pushing investors away from the U.S. dollar.
In the second half of the day, ADP weekly employment change figures are expected. Against the backdrop of dominant rumors about European sales of U.S. Treasury bonds and euro support driven by ZEW data, local economic indicators such as ADP risk being overshadowed. The market is already positioned for a certain scenario, and a significant deviation from forecasts would be required to change this sentiment. Moreover, it should be taken into account that weekly ADP data are only a preliminary estimate and often diverge from the official data released by the U.S. Department of Labor. Under the current circumstances, even positive employment data may be perceived as a temporary phenomenon, unable to alter the overall trend. Most likely, the market will focus on assessing geopolitical uncertainty and a potential revision of transatlantic relations. Therefore, it will be difficult for the dollar to show noticeable growth in the short term, even with support from positive statistical data.
In the case of strong statistics, I will rely on implementing the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.
Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:
For EURUSD
For GBPUSD
For USDJPY
Mean Reversion strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day:
For EURUSD
For GBPUSD
For AUDUSD
For USDCAD
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
