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The price test at 158.05 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move above the zero line, confirming the correct entry point to buy the dollar. But a major rise in the pair did not materialize.
Despite the dollar's decline versus a number of risk assets, against the Japanese yen, the US currency feels more or less confident. It is now widely believed that the Bank of Japan will keep its key interest rate unchanged on Friday, which will not support the yen but will instead keep traders alert to possible currency interventions by the government in case of further yen weakness.
At the same time, factors could shift the current balance of forces. First, an unexpected shift in the Bank of Japan's rhetoric: if the central bank suddenly signals plans for further rate hikes, that could trigger a sharp yen rally. Inflation data released before the decision are also important and could seriously affect the central bank's plans. For now, however, the yen is likely to gradually weaken against the dollar, so I will be watching for buying opportunities in USD/JPY.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 158.33 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 158.73 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.73, I intend to exit longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the MACD indicator is in the oversold area and the price tests 157.94 twice. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels, 158.33 and 158.73.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.94 level (red line on the chart) is breached, which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.48, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25?pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is better to sell at the highest possible price. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only just beginning to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the MACD indicator is in the overbought area and the pair tests 158.33 twice. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels, 157.94 and 157.48.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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