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Since the bullish trend in the euro remains intact, in my view the bullish trend in the pound also remains in place. I cannot imagine a bullish trend in the euro existing simultaneously with a bearish trend in the British pound. If I am not mistaken, the pound's rise will resume over time. However, there are currently no valid bullish patterns. Therefore, one should wait for the formation of new bullish patterns before considering new long positions.
Is it worth trading bearish patterns? Certainly, it is possible—but one should remember that the current decline in the pair is classified as a corrective pullback.
The current chart picture is as follows: the bullish trend in the pound can be considered complete, while the bullish trend in the euro is not. Therefore, in the long term, I still expect the pair to rise, but new bullish patterns are needed in order to be able to trade this move.
On Thursday, traders learned that the UK economy grew by 0.3% month on month in November, exceeding market expectations of 0.2%. Industrial production rose by 1.1% month on month in November versus a forecast of 0.1%. In my view, these two reports should have allowed bulls to mount an attack yesterday, but once again we saw nothing of the sort. The euro also ignored GDP data from Germany and industrial production data from the eurozone. On Friday, Germany released its final inflation report for December, which matched the preliminary estimate—a slowdown to 1.8% year on year. As inflation slows, the likelihood of further ECB monetary policy easing increases slightly. However, the euro is rising today—and along with it, the pound.
In the United States, the overall news background remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite difficult. The government shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only through the end of January, which is just three weeks away. U.S. labor market data continue to disappoint. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and the latest data suggest that any pause in monetary easing will be short-lived. Trump's military aggression, threats against Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, and Colombia, as well as the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, all perfectly complement the current picture in the United States. In my view, bulls have everything they need to launch a new offensive and return to last year's highs.
A bearish trend would require strong and sustained positive news for the U.S. dollar—something that is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as that would keep the trade balance in deficit. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly sharp decline in September and October. Too many risk factors continue to weigh heavily on the dollar. What would allow bears to push the pound further down if a bearish trend were to form now? If new bearish patterns emerge, a potential decline in the pound can be reconsidered, but at the moment, there are none.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
On January 19, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
For the pound, the picture remains clear. The bullish advance has been halted, and bears have gone on the offensive, but how long they can maintain pressure under the current news backdrop is unclear. I believe it will not be for long.
A resumption of the bullish trend can be expected only from new bullish patterns or after liquidity is taken from bearish swings. The nearest such swings at the moment are the lows from December 9 and December 17. As a target for potential growth, I continue to consider the 1.3725 level, though the pound may rise much higher in 2026. The main thing is for trading activity to finally resume after the New Year holidays. If bearish patterns form, short trades are also possible, but within a bullish trend, I personally favor buying rather than selling.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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