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The test of the price at 1.1645 came at a moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose by more than 60 pips.
The day before, the Federal Open Market Committee voted, with a majority (9 to 3), to lower the key interest rate by 0.25%, establishing a target range of 3.5%-3.75%. This action resulted in a weakening of the US dollar and a strengthening of the euro. Proponents of monetary policy easing insisted on the need to stimulate the economy amid a slowdown in labor-market growth. However, the long-term effects of this decision remain unclear. Many experts hold different views on the effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy and the potential risks they entail. In particular, there are doubts that the modest rate cut and the launch of a bond-buying program will significantly impact the labor market or investment and consumer activity. Meanwhile, some experts believe this will help avoid an economic downturn and support growth amid global instability.
Regarding today's data, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro's direction. The upcoming unemployment report in Italy is not expected to substantially influence market sentiment. If the unemployment rate exceeds forecasts, it may raise concerns about economic growth prospects and, consequently, weaken the euro. On the other hand, positive data could strengthen the position of the European currency.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at a price around 1.1697 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1727. At 1.1727, I intend to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1681 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1697 and 1.1727.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1681 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1655, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1697 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1681 and 1.1655.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
