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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound
The test of the 1.3245 price occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by more than 35 points.
News that the UK Services PMI came out higher than economists' forecasts provided significant support for the pound. The impact of positive PMI data on the currency market is quite logical. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity in the services sector, which in turn signals an overall improvement in the country's economic situation. For traders, this serves as an important signal of the potential strengthening of the national currency. In the context of GBP/USD, the pound's rise driven by PMI data reinforces the upward trend observed in recent days. Technical analysts and traders will likely view this as additional confirmation of the strength of the bullish scenario and seek opportunities to open new long positions.
Attention now turns to the ADP report, a preliminary indicator of the official labor market statistics we won't see on Friday due to the recent shutdown, which prevented timely data collection. As a result, the ADP release will be scrutinized carefully. Particularly important will be employment data for small and medium-sized businesses, as they are more sensitive to current economic conditions. If ADP shows substantial job growth, it will support the U.S. dollar. The ISM Services PMI is also highly significant. Steady growth in the services sector suggests the U.S. economy remains resilient despite concerns about slowing growth.
Ultimately, the market's reaction will depend not only on the absolute values of these indicators but also on how much they meet or contradict expectations.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point near 1.3297 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.3329 (thicker green line). Around 1.3329, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move downward from the level). A strong rise in the pound today can be expected only after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to move upward from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3275 price, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3297 and 1.3329 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout of 1.3275 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3253, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move upward). Pressure on the pound is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of the 1.3297 price occur at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3275 and 1.3253 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Important
Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price movements. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.
And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market fluctuations is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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