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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the support level of 1.1594–1.1607, turned in favor of the European currency, and rose to the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656. A rebound from this zone will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a new decline toward the 1.1594–1.1607 level. A consolidation of the pair above 1.1645–1.1656 will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, and the last upward wave has not yet broken the previous peak. Thus, the trend still remains bearish for now. Bullish traders have gone on the offensive, but their efforts are still insufficient to form a trend. For the bearish trend to be considered over, the pair must rise above 1.1656.
On Tuesday, the information background was not dull or insignificant. Donald Trump announced that he had chosen a new Fed Chair, but did not disclose the name. In the European Union, the inflation report for November was published, showing that prices rose slightly more than expected—by 2.2% y/y. The unemployment rate was also released, which for October came in slightly higher than market expectations at 6.4%. However, I can say with confidence that none of these events provoked any reaction among traders. While Trump's statement is understandable, the European reports cannot be considered secondary. Nevertheless, traders ignored them completely. Therefore, I believe the market is focused this week on U.S. economic data, since next week will bring the final FOMC meeting of the year. Ahead of this meeting, the U.S. dollar is slowly declining, as the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut the interest rate by another 0.25%. And U.S. economic data will directly affect the Fed's decision.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair once again returned to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1649. A third rebound from this level will again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. A consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680 will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 0.0% retracement level at 1.1829. No forming divergences are observed on any indicator today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 12,897 long positions and 2,857 short positions. COT reports have resumed after the shutdown, but for now the published data is still outdated—October data. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 243,000, while short positions amount to 135,000.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players have been closing short positions and increasing long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term and structural implications for the U.S. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators are declining, and the dollar is losing its status as a global reserve currency.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:
On December 3, the economic calendar contains six entries, of which only the U.S. reports are of real interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be moderate and primarily in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:
Sales of the pair are possible upon a rebound from the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1594–1.1607. Buy positions could have been opened yesterday upon a rebound from the 1.1594–1.1607 level with a target of 1.1645–1.1656. The target has been reached. New buy positions may be opened upon a close above the 1.1645–1.1656 level with a target of 1.1718.
Fibonacci grids are built using 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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