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Análisis Forex

Fundamental analysis

03.12.202506:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on December 3? Fundamental Events Overview for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

At first glance, there are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday. However, most of them do not seem interesting at this point. It is worth recalling that the market has already ignored the ISM report in the U.S. and the inflation and unemployment reports from the Eurozone this week. What are the chances that it will react to the second estimates of service sector PMI indices from Germany, the EU, and the UK? Therefore, these data can be safely overlooked. The only American releases that pique interest include the ADP labor market report, the ISM Services Activity Index, and industrial production data. These reports could provoke a completely illogical market reaction, but they should still not be ignored.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Few fundamental events are planned for Wednesday, and there are no significant ones among them. Yes, speeches by Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane may sound imposing, but it should be remembered that there are currently no questions from the market regarding the European Central Bank's monetary policy. The ECB has completed the process of lowering the key rate, and even yesterday's inflation increase is unlikely to compel the ECB to reconsider its monetary policy parameters. As for the Federal Reserve, the "quiet period" is in effect. The Fed meeting will take place next week, so FOMC representatives are currently not allowed to make comments regarding monetary policy.

General Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to trend upward, as an upward trend continues to form in both. The euro has a great trading area at 1.1655-1.1666. The British pound has an area at 1.3203-1.3211 and is currently in a range. Volatility on Wednesday may remain low, but there could still be some emotional spikes during the American trading session.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.

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