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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has been trading horizontally over the past few days between the price levels of 1.3186 and 1.3270. Traders are currently ignoring the chart levels, and the pair is moving sideways. Thus, under the current circumstances, I would consider the 1.3186–1.3214 level for opening trades. A rebound of the price from this zone will work in favor of the pound and the resumption of growth toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3294. A consolidation below this zone will allow the bears to launch an attack toward the 1.3119–1.3139 level.
The wave situation has transformed into a "bullish" one. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, at the moment, the trend has officially become "bullish." The informational background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears fully exploited it, and the information background in the U.S. is also far from ideal.
There were few news events on Monday. The UK Manufacturing PMI did not attract attention, while the equivalent U.S. index caused a rather mixed market reaction. In my view, another sideways range has formed in the market, and that says it all. There will be no significant news today, so throughout the day we may see more unusual movements inside the horizontal channel. The bulls have taken the initiative in the market, but they lack the strength to consistently push the pound upward. The upcoming FOMC meeting may result in a monetary policy easing decision, but let me remind you that the Committee relies on labor market, unemployment, and inflation data. And there have been no new figures for these indicators. This week, we will have to settle for only the ADP report, which does not fully reflect the actual state of the U.S. labor market. Thus, neither the bears nor the bulls are rushing to launch new attacks, because no one currently understands what decision on rates will be made in December.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair secured a consolidation above the descending trend channel and above the 1.3118–1.3140 level. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the 1.3339 level. A "bearish" divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, which may allow for some decline. However, I remind you that a sideways range has formed on the hourly chart, and it will determine the pair's direction in the coming days.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category became less bullish in the last reporting week, but this reporting week dates back a month and a half — October 14. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 14,896, and the number of short positions decreased by 7,743. The gap between long and short positions is currently roughly 79,000 versus 91,000. However, I remind you that this data reflects conditions as of mid-October.
In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency is in demand, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Thus, while the Bank of England may cut rates one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may be no better for it.
News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
On December 2, the economic calendar does not contain any noteworthy entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Selling the pair is possible today if the price consolidates below 1.3186 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3119–1.3139. Buying can be considered after a rebound from the 1.3186–1.3214 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3294.
The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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