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The dollar continued to lose ground yesterday—especially against the British pound—and there were sufficient reasons for it.
Despite a brief impulse in the dollar after the release of data on a decline in U.S. initial jobless claims, the overall trend remains negative for the American currency. This small positivity was insufficient to compensate for the prevailing market expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. The market continues to assess the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts as high, which puts substantial pressure on the dollar.
The publication of the UK budget was favorable for buyers of the British pound. Given the measures taken to close budget gaps, traders are likely to continue playing out a scenario of high interest rates from the Bank of England, despite deteriorating economic prospects. The labor market remains tight, and wages are rising, fueling inflation. The government's actions aimed at increasing tax revenues and reducing expenditures, while appearing as responsible fiscal policy, may only exacerbate inflationary pressures in the short term.
Today is rich in economic reports of interest to traders. The first block will be data from Germany. The GfK consumer climate index is expected to be published, providing insights into consumer sentiment in the Eurozone's largest economy. This indicator is important because consumer spending is a key driver of economic growth. Following that, attention should be paid to data on private-sector credit and changes in the M3 money supply. These data will help assess the state of the credit market and liquidity in the Eurozone. An increase in lending indicates improved economic activity, while changes in the money supply can signal inflationary trends.
The culmination of today will be the publication of the European Central Bank's report following its monetary policy meeting. Recall that at the last meeting, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged, which was, however, expected.
Regarding the pound, today's macroeconomic data appear relatively calm. The only significant event is a speech by BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Green. Given the lack of other important economic data, her comments might influence the dynamics of the British pound. In the context of the recent budget publication, which prompted purchases of the pound due to concerns about inflationary pressure, Green's speech takes on particular significance. Traders will closely monitor her rhetoric to gauge how the BoE plans to respond to potential inflationary pressures. If Green expresses concern about rising prices and hints at a more aggressive approach, the pound could gain additional support.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it may be best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be more appropriate.
For the EUR/USD Pair
For the GBP/USD Pair
For the USD/JPY Pair
For the EUR/USD Pair
For the GBP/USD Pair
For the AUD/USD Pair
For the USD/CAD Pair
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
