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The EUR/USD currency pair attempted to resume its upward movement on Monday, but the result was another flat response. As we can see, market movements remain either absent or illogical. On Monday, they were virtually non-existent. The overall volatility for the day was below 50 pips, and the price remained within the range established on Friday. The macroeconomic backdrop was almost non-existent, except for a single German business climate index, which had no impact on the pair's movement. Fundamentals were also lacking. Meanwhile, the flat trend on the daily timeframe persists. It has continued for several months now, and there is currently no indication of its completion in the near future. Thus, we may continue to observe weak and illogical movements. Unfortunately, this is the objective reality when the market is flat. Currently, this flat is not just local but global.
On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were formed throughout Monday; however, understandable reasons prevented traders from realizing substantial profits. The pair initially bounced from the area of 1.1527-1.1531, then broke through it, and subsequently broke it again in the opposite direction. In each of these cases, the price moved in the correct direction for a maximum of about 15 pips. As we mentioned, the issue lies not in the trading signals or levels but in the lack of movement in the market.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is declining again and may be forming a new downward trend. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the U.S. dollar, meaning the European currency can only decline on technical grounds—the flat trend on the daily timeframe remains relevant. However, we expect it to end and for the upward trend of 2025 to resume, with upward movements also occurring within the flat.
On Tuesday, beginner traders might once again trade from the area of 1.1527-1.1531, as there are no other options available. A price consolidation above this area will allow for long positions targeting 1.1571. A price bounce from this area makes short positions valid, targeting 1.1474.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. On Tuesday, no significant events are scheduled in the Eurozone, while three relatively important reports will be released in the U.S., including the Producer Price Index, retail sales, and the ADP report (weekly). While these are not the most critical releases, there are no other significant ones at this time. We expect a restrained market reaction to these reports.
Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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