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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair performed a false breakout of the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1517 and failed to continue the downward movement. Thus, the trend remains bearish, but the bulls have not yet lost all chances for their own trend. If they resume their advance this week, the bullish trend will still have a chance to form. At the moment, the quotes have consolidated above the 1.1517 level, which allows us to expect continued growth toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1594.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the most recent completed downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, for now the trend remains bearish. Bullish traders have moved into attack, but their efforts are still insufficient to form a trend. For the bearish trend to be considered complete, the pair must rise above 1.1656 or form two consecutive bullish waves.
On Friday, the global fundamental background was busy. The main influence on traders' sentiment came from Germany's business activity indices, even though they were the least significant among the day's reports. Recall that business activity indices were also released in Germany (and other EU countries), the European Union, the UK, and the USA. However, the new bearish attacks were driven by the fact that in Europe, the UK, and the U.S., the business activity indices showed mixed dynamics: when one index rose, the other fell. In Germany, both business activity indices came in below traders' expectations, triggering another decline in the euro. It's also worth noting that the bears didn't attack for long on Friday because another index — consumer sentiment — in the U.S. turned out worse than forecasts, and in the second half of the day the dollar could no longer expect growth. I anticipated more interesting movements on Friday, but trader activity remains low.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair bounced off the 23.6% corrective level at 1.1649, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a new downward movement. Consolidation below 1.1538 allows us to expect a continued decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1448. A consolidation above 1.1538 will favor the euro and some growth toward the next resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. Two bullish divergences of the CCI indicator increase the probability of an upward reversal.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional players opened 3,377 long positions and 2,381 short positions. COT reports began to be published again after the government shutdown, but so far the data is outdated — from October. The sentiment of the Non-commercial group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 255 thousand, and short positions — 137 thousand.
For thirty-three weeks in a row, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Donald Trump's policy remains the most significant factor for traders, as it may cause numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators show declines, and the dollar is losing its status as a "global reserve currency."
News calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:
European Union — Germany's Business Climate Index (09:00 UTC).
On November 24, the economic calendar contains a single entry that holds no real value for traders. There will be no impact of the fundamental background on market sentiment on Monday.
EUR/USD forecast and trader recommendations:
I would not recommend considering selling the pair today, as the bulls may initiate a new advance. It is unlikely to be rapid, but still possible. Long positions may be opened if the price closes above 1.1517 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1594.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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