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A significant event occurred that market participants seemingly ignored, judging by their reaction. However, this event will undoubtedly be taken into account. The longest government "shutdown" in U.S. history has come to an end. It lasted 43 days, and ironically, before the "shutdown" ended, the market was already talking about a new "shutdown" planned for early February.
During all 43 days, Republicans and Democrats unsuccessfully tried to agree on funding for social and medical programs that Donald Trump had decided to cut. Democrats insisted on maintaining all programs at full funding, while Republicans demanded approval of funding for the upcoming year and only then allowed negotiations on the issue. In the end, the dispute was resolved in a rather unexpected manner. Democrats approved a 2.5-month funding extension, while Republicans promised to negotiate Medicaid funding in December.
In my view, the Democrats made a very clever "chess move." They understand that Trump's political ratings are low and continue to decline. The American people largely blame Republicans for the "shutdown" rather than Democrats. Therefore, the "shutdown," in which the Democratic Party presents itself as a kind of "Robin Hood," caring for the interests of the poor and socially vulnerable citizens of the U.S., actually works in their favor.
Democrats also know that trusting Trump at his word is like sticking your head in a tiger's mouth, hoping he is full. If Democrats had voted for the funding bill for the entire next year, there would be no negotiations left. Thus, the Democrats temporarily unlocked the government and passed the ball to the Republicans' court. Now it's the president's turn. If he and his party refuse to concede to the Democrats in December, funding will once again run out in February, leading to a new "shutdown," for which Americans will again blame Trump.
Even if we abstract from the question of "who is right and who is to blame?", the fact that every Trump presidential term is accompanied by a "shutdown" says a lot. Previously, it was one "shutdown" per presidential term; now it has become a "shutdown" every year. Clearly, the problem is not solely with the perpetually poor Democrats. The problem lies within the current administration, which knows how to negotiate only through the stick method. This tactic works with many opponents, as they are simply weaker. However, Democrats see no reason to concede anything to Trump, who holds them in disdain. Therefore, the political battle is just beginning.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to develop a bullish segment of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors that may lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar in the future. The targets for the current segment of the trend could reach the 25 figure. Currently, we are in the construction of corrective wave 4, which is taking a very complex and extended form. Its last internal structure— a-b-c-d-e is presumed to be complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the instrument to rise with targets around annual highs or near them.
The wave picture for GBP/USD has changed. We continue to deal with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in 4 is presumed to be complete. If this is indeed the case, I anticipate that the main wave structure will resume its build-up, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. The key is that the news background needs to be at least a little better than it was this week.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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