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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3247, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell to 1.3139. A rebound from that level has since favored the pound, leading to some growth and a close above the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3186. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the 1.3247 level. A new close below 1.3186 would favor the dollar and a decline toward 1.3139 and 1.3110.
The wave structure remains bearish. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. The fundamental background in recent weeks has been negative for the U.S. dollar, but bullish traders have not taken advantage of these opportunities. This week, they have even sharply retreated from the market — despite the Fed's rate cut.
On Wednesday, the FOMC Committee decided to lower the interest rate by 0.25%, which caused the U.S. dollar to strengthen. This paradox can only be explained by the market's overly optimistic expectations for further monetary easing. Most traders were probably hoping for hints from Jerome Powell about another rate cut in December, but they didn't get them. In my opinion, this is a rather weak reason to buy the dollar.
This morning it was also reported that China's President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump held their planned meeting, which, according to Trump, "went very well." Following the talks, both sides agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% and on fentanyl to 10%. Trump also stated that China would continue exporting rare earth metals to the U.S. for at least another year, while America would continue selling soybeans to China.
This is not the end of the trade war, but it is a de-escalation, which the bears could again use as an excuse to sell the pair. In my view, the bears have already used all available factors — and even more — to justify their attacks. Nevertheless, the trend for the pound (unlike the euro) remains bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3435, which worked in favor of the dollar, and fell into the support level of 1.3118–1.3140, which had twice before halted the pound's decline. A rebound from this zone would favor the pound and a new rise toward 1.3339. No developing divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among non-commercial traders became slightly more bullish during the last reporting week — though that data is already a month old. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 85,000 vs. 86,000. Thus, bullish traders are once again starting to tilt the balance in their favor.
In my opinion, the pound still faces downside risks, but with each passing month, the U.S. dollar looks weaker and weaker. Previously, traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies, not realizing their potential consequences. Now they are concerned about those consequences — a possible recession, the constant introduction of new tariffs, and Trump's conflict with the Fed, which could make the central bank "politically compromised." As a result, the pound looks far less risky than the U.S. dollar.
U.S. and U.K. News Calendar:
For October 30, the economic calendar contains no significant events. The news background will have no influence on market sentiment on Thursday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:
Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.3354–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3313, 1.3247, and 1.3186 — all of which have been achieved with a margin. Today, I do not recommend new short positions, as the pound has already fallen enough. Buying can be considered either on a rebound from 1.3139 or after a close above 1.3186 on the hourly chart. Targets: 1.3247 and 1.3300.
Fibonacci grids are built between 1.3247 – 1.3470 on the hourly chart and 1.3431 – 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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