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On Wednesday (and into Thursday), the GBP/USD pair continued a weak downward movement — despite having virtually no fundamental reason for doing so. Let's recall that the trend for the pound turned bullish after the downward trendline was broken. There's been no meaningful macroeconomic or fundamental news for the British currency this week. On the other hand, U.S. developments — including the ongoing government shutdown and unrest in Chicago — clearly don't favor dollar strength. Last week's U.S. economic data fell short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates two more times before year-end.
All of this strongly suggests the dollar should be weakening, not strengthening. Therefore, we view the current decline in the GBP/USD as completely illogical.
In theory, the euro's decline might be pulling the pound down due to a strong correlation; however, even this explanation is debatable. While losses in GBP are not large, they occur at a time when the currency should logically be rising. In short, intraday movements remain chaotic and poorly structured.
On the 5-minute timeframe, we are seeing a situation similar to EUR/USD. Price action has started to ignore support/resistance levels altogether. While trade signals are still forming, they rarely reach their targets.
For example, in yesterday's trading around the 1.3413–1.3421 zone, four signals were generated — all of them false. Therefore, beginner traders need to understand that market logic is currently lacking, and short-term price action is volatile and unpredictable.
On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has ended its previous downtrend, but any attempt at a reversal to the upside has yet to gain traction. As we noted, there are no credible reasons for the U.S. dollar to strengthen in the medium term; therefore, we still expect a bullish movement for GBP/USD over time.
However, market conditions remain strange. The pound continues to fall without a clear justification, and technical structures are being disrupted. It is possible to trade based on technical signals on lower timeframes (M5), but price movements remain inconsistent regardless of the timeframe.
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair may continue to move downward, especially since the price has broken through the 1.3413–1.3421 area. Still, given current market conditions, unpredictable upward pullbacks and disregard for established zones or resistance levels are likely.
Here are the key support and resistance zones on the 5-minute timeframe: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763.
There are no major economic events scheduled for the UK on Thursday. However, Jerome Powell's speech in the U.S. could cause sharp volatility, depending on what the Fed Chair says. Powell's statement will be a key event, especially given the Fed's current rate-cutting cycle and the general uncertainty in U.S. policy. Be prepared for sudden movements in either direction as the market reacts.
Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can heavily influence currency pair movement. During their release, you should trade with extra caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp price swings against your position.
For beginners in forex trading: remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are essential for long-term success in trading.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
