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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, though the pace throughout the day remained very slow, despite a relatively large number of macroeconomic reports. In Germany alone, reports on retail sales, unemployment, jobless claims, and inflation were released. The data was mixed, but we believe that the inflation figure is currently the most important. In Germany, inflation rose more than forecast, giving grounds to expect a rise in eurozone-wide inflation. Higher inflation across the eurozone makes any new ECB rate cut nearly impossible and even opens up the possibility of future rate hikes. Naturally, this is good news for the euro.
As for the dollar, it remains in a gloomy state. Today marks the start of the U.S. government shutdown, which is unlikely to be viewed favorably by any market participant. Several important U.S. economic reports are scheduled for the remainder of this week, each of which may present risks for the dollar.
On the 5-minute timeframe, three sell signals were formed on Tuesday, but as mentioned, volatility was extremely weak. Therefore, regardless of signal quality, it was nearly impossible to expect any meaningful profits. That said, losses were also unlikely, as the price failed to sustain levels above the 1.1745–1.1754 range.
On the hourly time frame, EUR/USD maintains a downward trend. The overall macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop remains negative for the U.S. dollar, so we still do not expect any sustained strength in the greenback. As we've noted previously, any upward movement of the USD is likely to be limited to technical corrections—one of which we are currently witnessing.
On Wednesday, the pair is expected to trade around the 1.1745–1.1754 zone. Over the past two days, there have been four pullbacks from this area. Each new bounce from this level presents a short opportunity. A breakthrough above this zone would open up the path for long trades targeting 1.1808. However, keep in mind that this week's macroeconomic calendar is packed, and Donald Trump continues to take every opportunity to put pressure on the dollar.
For intraday trading on the 5-minute chart, refer to the following levels: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988.
On Wednesday, the EU will release inflation data for September—an important report. In the U.S., the focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (very important) and the slightly less impactful ADP report on private sector employment changes.
Support and resistance price levels: Targets to consider when opening buy or sell trades. Potential take-profit levels can be placed near them.
Red lines: Trendlines or channels indicating the current market direction and preferred trading bias.
MACD (14,22,3) indicator: Histogram and signal line used as a secondary signal generator.
Important speeches and news reports (always listed in economic calendars) can have a strong impact on currency movement. Therefore, during such releases, it is advisable to either trade with extreme caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals against the prior trend.
Note for beginners: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and adhering to solid money management principles is the key to long-term success in forex trading.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
