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For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulsive wave structure. The wave picture is almost identical to EUR/USD, as the only real driver remains the dollar. Demand for it is declining across the entire market (in the medium term), so many instruments are showing almost identical dynamics. At this stage, wave 4 is presumably complete. If that is the case, the instrument's rise will continue within impulsive wave 5. Wave 4 could take on a five-wave form, but that is not the most likely scenario.
It should be remembered that at the moment a great deal in the currency market depends on Donald Trump's policies – and not only trade policy. From time to time, decent news comes out of America, but the market constantly keeps in mind full economic uncertainty, Trump's contradictory decisions and statements, and the White House's hostile and protectionist stance. Global tensions are rising and, as noted, the dollar remains the main casualty.
The GBP/USD exchange rate rose by 100 basis points on Friday. Some may find such an increase impressive, but I believe this is only the beginning of a new decline for the U.S. currency. The current wave pattern does not allow for even an alternative scenario that would give the dollar hope for a brighter future. The wave pattern is so unambiguous that it could be used in textbooks on wave analysis. As for the news background, it has been a long time since I've seen 80% of all news flow favoring just one currency – or more precisely, against one currency: the dollar. Therefore, I continue to expect only further gains for GBP/USD.
I have said this repeatedly in recent weeks and months, during which demand for the U.S. currency slowly but surely increased. However, corrective waves and trend segments are always part of the process. What conclusions could market participants draw this week? The trade war continues, Trump still cannot achieve a truce between Ukraine and Russia, his pressure on the FOMC persists, Trump's tariffs were struck down by a court yet remain in effect, U.S. economic indicators continue to decline, the labor market keeps "cooling," and unemployment is rising. On what grounds should the market end the bullish trend segment?
Now the dollar faces a real opportunity to continue its prolonged decline for new reasons. After today's data confirmed the cooling of the U.S. labor market, it is clear to everyone that the Fed will not just cut the interest rate in September. This will only be the beginning of a new cycle of monetary easing. At present, FOMC members talk about two rounds of easing in 2025, but it should be remembered that Adriana Kugler has already left her post, and Lisa Cook may step down soon. Who else Trump will target is unknown, but I have little doubt that he will. By the New Year, the composition of the FOMC could be entirely different, loyal to the demands of the U.S. president.
The wave picture for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish impulsive trend segment. Under Donald Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave picture, but for now the main scenario remains intact. The targets for the bullish trend segment are now around 1.4017. At this point, I assume that corrective wave 4 is complete. Wave 2 in 5 may also be complete or close to completion. Accordingly, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
Main principles of my analysis:
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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