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The test of the 143.36 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. However, the pair did not decline afterward, which led to a recorded loss.
Yesterday's news that U.S. producer prices came in lower than economists had expected triggered a further decline in the U.S. dollar and strengthened yen. This unexpected deviation from forecasts immediately impacted the currency markets, causing volatility and prompting investors to reassess their strategies. The yen, which had long been under pressure, received much-needed support and experienced a sharp rise in value.
However, today's Israeli strike on Iran brought demand back to the dollar and triggered a sell-off in risk assets. The geopolitical tensions that suddenly flared up in the Middle East instantly affected global markets, causing a flight from risk and a capital shift toward safe-haven assets. Traditionally viewed as a safe haven during turbulent times, the U.S. dollar regained strength while stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities came under pressure.
In the short term, demand for the dollar will likely persist as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Much will depend on how the situation unfolds and how the international community responds.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point near 143.83 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 144.43 (thicker green line). Around 144.43, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a pullback of 30–35 pips from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant USD/JPY pullbacks.
Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 143.36 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 143.83 and 144.43 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below the 143.36 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 142.78, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound). Selling pressure on the pair could return quickly today.
Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 143.83 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop toward the opposite levels of 143.36 and 142.78 can be expected.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
