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A fairly large number of macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday, but most of them will not interest traders. For example, the report on industrial production in Germany or the retail sales report in the Eurozone. Even the GDP report in the Eurozone (third estimate for the first quarter) is unlikely to have any impact on market sentiment. However, U.S. publications may trigger a storm of emotions in the market. The NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports remain among the most important. If the U.S. labor market shows signs of slowing and unemployment continues to rise, traders will associate these events with Donald Trump's tariff policy and will expect the Fed to resume its monetary policy easing cycle. And right now, it doesn't take much for the dollar to fall.
Analysis of Fundamental Events:
There's absolutely nothing noteworthy among fundamental events. The ECB meeting has already taken place, and the Bank of England and Fed meetings will be held later, but they carry no intrigue either. Both central banks are 90% likely to leave key interest rates unchanged.
We believe the market still cares only about the ongoing trade war. The dollar's decline may continue if trade agreements with most countries are not signed before the end of the grace period — and that ends in just a month. The dollar may continue to fall even without new tariffs from Trump, as market sentiment toward the U.S. president and his policies remains extremely negative. The International Trade Court decided to block Trump's tariffs, but the U.S. Appeals Court overturned this decision the same day. Later, it was announced that tariffs on imported steel and aluminum would be increased.
General Conclusions:On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs will trade based on technical factors in the first half of the day and U.S. macroeconomic data in the second. Thus, we can expect sluggish, low-volatility movements in the morning and a storm after lunch.
Main Rules of the Trading System:
What's on the Charts:
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and good money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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