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The price test at 1.3268 occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential. For that reason, I did not buy the pound.
Today, the US dollar weakened significantly following reports that China is unwilling to make concessions to the US in the trade war and that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may soon be replaced due to strong dissatisfaction from President Donald Trump. The uncertainty around the Fed's leadership is putting pressure on the dollar. Rumors of Powell's possible resignation have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and its ability to make sound monetary policy decisions. The combination of these factors creates a negative backdrop for the US currency, providing a case for further dollar weakness in the coming weeks—especially if US-China trade talks stall and the Fed leadership issue remains unresolved.
Since no economic data is expected from the UK today, there is even less incentive to sell the British pound under current market conditions. Market participants are unlikely to push against the upward trend without relevant information from the UK, so sellers may not gain traction at current highs. Moreover, the lack of UK data may paradoxically support the pound's stability. With no apparent reason for pessimism, investors are reluctant to part with the pound for fear of missing out on potential upside from future favorable news.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point of 1.3399 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3446 (thicker green line). Around 1.3446, I plan to exit long positions and open short trades in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 pip pullback). This strategy assumes continued upward momentum.
Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3356 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside potential and prompt an upward market reversal. Target levels would be 1.3399 and 1.3446.
Scenario #1:I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3356 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3304, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open long positions (targeting a 20–25 pip rebound).
Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3399 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and likely lead to a downward reversal—expected targets: 1.3356 and 1.3304.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
