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The test of the 1.2565 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.
The pound continued to rise, supported by sustained demand in the market after news that Trump does not intend to impose tariffs aggressively. This provided momentum for risk assets, and the pound, traditionally classified as a risk asset, capitalized on the situation. However, this optimism may be premature. The upcoming U.S.-UK trade negotiations and the specific list of tariffs remain unknown, creating significant uncertainty.
In the second half of the day, U.S. retail sales and industrial production data for January will be released. If the figures disappoint, it will increase pressure on the dollar and trigger another wave of pound growth. If the data is strong, the dollar could strengthen, restraining the pound's upward potential. Retail sales are a key indicator of consumer sentiment and the overall health of the U.S. economy.
The speech by FOMC member Lorie K. Logan is also worth attention. Investors will closely monitor any hints regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy trajectory. Her remarks on inflation, employment, and economic growth prospects could significantly influence market expectations and, consequently, the dollar's exchange rate.
For intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy GBP/USD at 1.2591 (green line on the chart), targeting an increase to 1.2646 (thicker green line). At 1.2646, I will exit purchases and initiate sell trades, expecting a 30-35 point retracement. The pound's growth today will depend on weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.2566, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to 1.2591 and 1.2646 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell GBP/USD after it breaks below 1.2566 (red line on the chart), which will likely trigger a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.2515, where I will exit short trades and immediately open buy trades (expecting a 20-25 point retracement). Sellers are likely to act on strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell GBP/USD if there are two consecutive tests of 1.2591, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to 1.2566 and 1.2515 can be expected.
Chart Explanation
Important Notes
Beginner Forex traders must be cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper risk management and trade with large volumes.
A clear trading plan—such as the one outlined above—is essential for success. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market movements are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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