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The pound received support from UK inflation data. After dipping to 1.3363 in the morning, GBP/USD rose to nearly 1.3400 and is currently holding around 1.3391. Inflation figures came in above expectations, which is almost always positive news for a currency.
Consumer prices rose by 3.5% year-on-year in September, compared with expectations of 3.4% and 3.1% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.4%, against a forecast of 0.3%. However, the market focused most closely on the core index, which excludes volatile components. It accelerated to 2.8%, compared with a forecast of 2.7%. This measure shows how deeply price pressures have spread through the economy, rather than simply reflecting higher oil or food prices. Retail prices rose by 3.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The picture is more concerning at the producer level. Input prices rose by 8.3% year-on-year, compared with expectations of 7.2%, while output prices increased by 4.6%, against a forecast of 4.3%. Such cost increases usually feed through to consumer prices over time, suggesting that inflationary pressures remain persistent.
For the Bank of England, the conclusion is straightforward: a restrictive policy stance, with a possible rate hike, remains in place. This supported the pound. Public sector net borrowing came in at £24.5 billion, compared with a forecast of £23.8 billion, but the market paid little attention to the figure. As long as UK inflation remains above expectations, GBP/USD is likely to find support, while a significant slowdown in price growth would quickly weaken that support.
There are no US economic releases scheduled for the second half of the day, and no Federal Reserve officials are due to speak, as the Fed typically enters its blackout period ahead of a policy meeting. As a result, GBP/USD remains sensitive to geopolitical developments. The main driver for the dollar will be the Middle East, where any movement in energy prices is quickly reflected in bond yields, which in turn influence sentiment toward the US currency. If oil and gas prices begin to rise, bond yields are likely to move higher, supporting the dollar. If energy prices fall, the pound may have an opportunity to rebound. Without fresh signals from this front, a strong independent move in the pair is unlikely.
The breakout levels for GBP/USD remain unchanged, with resistance at 1.3402 and support at 1.3365. At 1.3391, the price is 11 points below the upper level, while the morning high of around 1.3400 fell just two points short of it. This illustrates why an initial test of a level should not be treated as a confirmed breakout. Long positions are considered only after the price consolidates firmly above 1.3402, with targets at 1.3437 and 1.3467. Inflation data supported the pound, making this the primary scenario. However, in the absence of fresh news from the Middle East, the pair may lack sufficient momentum to extend its gains in the second half of the day. The lower level at 1.3365 is 26 points away. Short positions below this level, with targets at 1.3335 and 1.3303, would become viable only if oil prices rose sharply and pushed the dollar higher.
The mean-reversion levels for GBP/USD are 1.3413 and 1.3375. The upper level is 11 points above the breakout-buy entry level at 1.3402. If the price breaks above 1.3402, reaches 1.3413, and then quickly falls back below it, short positions may be considered, as the morning rally had already failed to gain momentum once. However, if the price consolidates above 1.3413, this would indicate a breakout, and short positions should be avoided. The lower mean-reversion level at 1.3375 is 10 points above the breakout-sell level at 1.3365, and the price has already rebounded upward from that area. The preferred setup is a brief move below 1.3375 followed by a quick recovery above it. In that case, long positions would be appropriate, with a stop-loss below the low of the brief break. If the price instead consolidates below 1.3375 and moves toward 1.3365, the mean-reversion setup will have failed, and attention will shift to the breakout-sell target at 1.3335.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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