A lenda da equipe InstaSpot!
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The price test of 154.11 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming the right entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair fell about 40 pips.
The yen is already at multi-month highs, yet domestic retail traders stubbornly bet against its rise, increasing net short exposure. According to the Japan Financial Futures Association and the Tokyo Financial Exchange, private traders held about £3.61 trillion net short last week (around $23.5 billion), even higher than in August. In July their short exposure reached £4.41 trillion — the largest since 2015. This is classic contrarian behavior by Japanese retail: selling the yen on strength and buying it back on weakness.
More important is the divergence between participant groups. While locals hold net shorts, foreign investors are urgently unwinding carry trades funded in cheap yen, and hedge funds are positioning for further yen strength — some even targeting USD/JPY below 150 by year-end. That divergence is potentially explosive, laying the groundwork for a future squeeze. Combined with ongoing interventions, carry unwinds, and BOJ rate-hike expectations, this short-position overhang could become additional fuel for the yen, so I remain biased toward further downside in USD/JPY in the near term.
For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point around 153.52 (the green line on the chart) is reached, with a target to rise to 154.19 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.19, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair tests 153.01 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 153.52 and 154.19.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 153.01 level (the red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.42, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers will return at any moment — we only need any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if it tests 153.52 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 153.01 and 153.42.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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