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US equity indices finished yesterday with robust gains. The S&P 500 rose by 1.06%, the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 1.40%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 1.18%.
This morning, US indices and Treasuries are pausing ahead of the August jobs report, an event that could determine the Fed's September rate decision. S&P 500 futures were little changed after the previous session's biggest one-day gain in a month. The 10-year Treasury yield eased by one basis point to 4.76%, while most of the curve remained muted. Brent crude is holding near $95.50/bbl and the dollar is flat. The lack of a clear directional bias across asset classes is notable — a rare moment when no one wants to be the first to take a position.
Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 55,000, following July's surprising decline. That outcome would be roughly in line with this year's average pace of job creation, signaling that the labor market is not collapsing but not overheating either. The market currently views the odds of a 25-bp hike in September as roughly even, so the cost of a forecasting error is higher than usual.
The Fed debate makes this report particularly consequential. Last week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's strong focus on price stability, but the jobs data could buy the committee time to judge whether current policy is sufficiently restrictive. In practice, a weak labor report would give the Fed formal cover to hold rates while retaining hawkish rhetoric. That outcome would be supportive for both equities and bonds but would erode confidence in the Fed's resolve since each delay in the face of above-target inflation undermines credibility.
The market needs a mildly weak payrolls print — weak enough to justify a pause, but not so weak that recession fears spike. How realistic is that? I think the odds are lower than the market assumes, given the recent data mix. ADP showed just a 38,000 rise in private payrolls in August, the smallest gain since January, and the ISM services employment index stayed in contraction for a second month at 47.8. Both indicators point to hiring materially below the 55,000 consensus. At the same time, the ISM services prices index surged to 72.6, the highest since August 2022. The combination of soft hiring and accelerating prices leaves the committee with no comfortable exit route.
European markets have their own story today. The Stoxx 600 ticked higher, and Volkswagen spiked by as much as 9.7% after announcing a large restructuring. Regional bonds lagged, with UK gilts underperforming most, consistent with a broader sell-off in sovereign debt amid budget concerns and pricier energy.
The yen also merits attention: it has retained most of its gain after a more than 2% advance on Thursday, reaching levels not seen since May and the previous intervention. This episode looks structurally different from past moves. Earlier, yen strength was driven by one-off interventions; the current move reflects unwind of carry trades ahead of the Bank of Japan decision, and that position adjustment is a more durable driver than a one-time policy purchase.
Today's payrolls report is shaping up as a fork in the road for at least three markets: equities, bonds, and FX. My base case is for the actual payrolls print to come in below the 55,000 consensus, closer to the 20–40k range, given the consistent weakness in ADP and ISM. That would push yields lower and support risk assets but would not strengthen the dollar, as markets would price a September Fed pause. The main risk to this view remains the familiar divergence between survey-based indicators and official data that surprised forecasters in July.
As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, buyers need to overcome the resistance level of 7,756 to confirm further upside and open a path to 7,774. Holding above 7,793 would further cement the bulls' case. On the downside, buyers must defend 7,737. A break below that level would likely drive the index back to 7,718 and open the way to 7,698.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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