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Bitcoin and Ethereum began correcting after a sharp decline, but demand remains quite low and there is no talk of a bullish trend in the near term. Many experts note that the market "bottom" could form in the $40,000–$55,000 range. There are no technical signs that the downtrend for Ethereum or Bitcoin has ended. Thus, we assume Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue to correct for some time, and then the downtrend will resume.
Meanwhile, Wintermute analysts said the recent $8,000 rise in Bitcoin may have been just a technical retracement. We share the same view. Even if a new correction lasting several months unfolds, it would still be a correction, not a new trend. Therefore, in the medium term we still expect the leading cryptocurrency to fall. The analysts also said that without a full return of large capital, a new bull trend is impossible. They note that spot demand for Bitcoin remains low, ETF outflows have persisted for a long time, and the digital investment products market has lost roughly $80 billion in volume.
Wintermute also noted that the latest Bitcoin crash was driven by market fears of a renewed wave of inflation, while the recent recovery was supported by stabilization in the Middle East. The firm admits that Bitcoin could continue falling to around $50,000. In our view, this is a very real scenario, and the "digital gold" could sink well below that level. The cheaper Bitcoin trades, the fewer investors want to hold it on their books. Lower mining volumes will push more miners into the AI sector. In effect, each new Bitcoin drop triggers another wave of capital outflows — a domino effect.
Bitcoin is still forming a full downtrend with counter?trend corrections. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three?year uptrend), and there are still no signs of an uptrend beginning. The last bearish FVG pattern formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area, so that zone serves as a POI for short positions over the coming weeks. On the 4?hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency may be in an upward correction soon, so if traders wish to trade against the trend, they can consider small long positions from bullish patterns.
On the daily timeframe, a downtrend that began in August last year continues to form. The key sell pattern remains the bearish order?block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe the current downtrend is over, as there are no signs of its completion for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near term, Ethereum may resume its decline with targets at $1,391 and $788 if Bitcoin reacts to the bearish FVG on the daily timeframe. Until that happens, it makes sense to consider small long positions from bullish patterns on the 4?hour timeframe. The nearest pattern was a bullish FVG in the $1,721–$1,771 area, which has already played out, but there has been no confirmation in the form of a structure break on the M30 (30?minute) chart. Thus, the signal could still form. But without a rise in Bitcoin (which has its own bullish FVG on the 4?hour timeframe), Ethereum will not grow.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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