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15.12.202223:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Dead or buried

Exchange Rates 15.12.2022 analysis

All three major central bank meetings scheduled for this week are behind us. It's a good time to catch the momentum of key currencies. The dollar stopped the downtrend but could not rebound immediately after the FOMC meeting. However, it has a good chance of rallying, though not as large as before.

A rebound in the dollar index to 105.00 would be a kind of Christmas present for the dollar fans. Higher numbers are unlikely, at least the forecasts do not suggest such a scenario.

The indicator should stabilize around 103.50-104.00 in the coming sessions, i.e. by the end of the week.

Exchange Rates 15.12.2022 analysis

ING economists saw favorable conditions for the dollar's recovery. However, they also point to short-term risks.

"Thin liquidity and seasonal trends may argue against a sustained dollar rebound at this stage," the economists report.

If, however, the index manages to stabilize around the 104.00 mark, it may be a signal

"A stabilisation in DXY around 103.50-104.00 in the next two sessions may be a signal the Fed has indeed curbed the Dollar's bearish momentum and may allow a recovery to 105+ into Christmas."

Exchange Rates 15.12.2022 analysis

The dollar rose slightly Thursday, trading just above 104.00, after retail sales data came in much worse than forecast. Persistently high inflation and tight financial conditions hit consumer demand.

Retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in November, far worse than market forecasts of a 0.1% decline. This is the biggest drop this year.

It's worth noting that the November report, which includes Black Friday and Cyber Monday, shows a clear slowdown in consumer spending amid high inflation and interest rates. It also shows that holiday shopping carried over into October, when sales jumped 1.3%.

The hawkish European Central Bank did not help the euro

The ECB, as well as the Federal Reserve, took a hawkish stance, which pushed traders to buy the euro, the exchange rate rose to the highest level since early June at 1.0700. After the first emotions cooled down and the first, even hasty analysis was carried out, the euro retreated against the dollar.

Is there a chance for recovery in the future, because the EUR/USD pair started to have high hopes.

So, the ECB raised rates by 50 bps as expected. The central bank confirmed new rate hikes and outlined plans for quantitative easing.

ECB President Christine Lagarde outlined the long term prospect of rate hikes in steps of 50 bps at the press conference. No definite date was given, but Lagarde made it clear that it will be longer than recently planned. Rates will need to continue to rise at a much steadier pace to combat inflation.

It would seem that the hawkish move and the same overtones should have allowed the euro to test new highs. However, traders started to look at the situation from the other side. The euro is back at 1.0600, as markets are trying to assess how much additional rate hikes will hurt the already fragile economy. The ECB has revised up its inflation forecasts, while the growth forecast has been revised sharply down.

The ECB also said it will start reducing its balance sheet by an average of 15 billion euros a month from the beginning of March 2023 until the end of the second quarter of 2023. More details will emerge in February.

The euro looks uncertain at the moment. The chances of trying out a new high are equal to the risks of a new fall to parity.

Exchange Rates 15.12.2022 analysis

Credit Suisse believes that the EUR/USD pair will test the May highs near 1.0800 by the end of the year. However, the upward movement could quickly run out of steam. The euro will come under pressure again in the first quarter of next year. Correction risks, according to Scotiabank, can spread to the area of 1.0250-1.0450.

Rabobank generally expects another wave of EUR/USD decline to parity.

The Danske Bank has a negative outlook. Economists expect the pair to decline next year. This is because the FOMC is signaling a rate hike beyond 5% in 2023. The strength of the US dollar is known to play a key role here.

Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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