20.10.202609:02 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Corporate Buyers Keep Buying, but the Market Hardly Notices

Bitcoin failed to hold above $83,000 yesterday, and downward pressure returned as other risk assets weakened. The main reason was a sharp rise in oil and a pickup in inflation expectations: expensive oil feeds through to higher prices, increases the likelihood of rate hikes, and pushes investors out of risk-sensitive assets. Against that backdrop, the market barely noticed fresh purchases by two of the largest corporate holders.

Strategy bought 267 BTC for $22 million at an average price of $82,900. Its balance now holds 848,517 BTC worth roughly $69.8 billion, up from 848,000 BTC on October 4. The two-week increase is modest — about 500 coins. The company's USD reserve stands at $5.3 billion. At the same time, Strategy repurchased $193 million of its own preferred STRC shares and raised its preferred-share buyback program from $2 billion to $3 billion. Notably, part of the funds are being used not to buy Bitcoin but to reduce obligations to preferred-shareholders.

Bitmine, led by Tom Lee, bought 12,535 ETH for about $30 million. The company now holds 6,041,481 ETH worth roughly $14.3 billion — about 4.9% of total Ether supply. Around 5,067,309 ETH (84% of its holdings) are staked, and cash and liquid securities total $582 million. However, the company's unrealized loss is about $5.57 billion. Lee previously said Bitmine would stop buying once it accumulated 5% of Ether supply; roughly 63,500 ETH remain to reach that cap. At the current pace of purchases, that is about five weeks, in my estimate.

These purchases matter for sentiment but not for the supply-demand balance. By comparison, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $229 million last week — nearly ten times Strategy's Bitcoin purchase. As institutional funds withdraw, corporate buyers can only soften the decline. I believe that if oil and inflation expectations remain under pressure, Bitcoin is more likely to re-test the lower end of its range, and Ether will have a harder time while its main corporate buyer, Bitmine, approaches the end of its buying program.

Bitcoin — The price trades in a narrow range between 81,600 and 81,900, and the plan centers on two mirror directions: a full breakout and a rebound scenario. For buy positions, I consider a confirmed breakout above 81,900, targeting 82,500, where I take profit and may reverse into a short on the pullback, provided price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Alternatively, if a drop below 81,600 fails to hold and price returns, buy the rebound, targeting 81,900 first and then 82,500.

The sell scenario is symmetric. A confirmed break below 81,600 opens a short targeting 81,000, provided the moving average is above price and Awesome is below zero. If an upside breakout above 81,900 fails and price returns below the level, short the rebound, targeting 81,600 first, then 81,000.

Ether — The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale, with support at 2,389 and 2,371 and resistance at 2,400 and 2,422. For buy positions, consider a breakout above 2,400 targeting 2,422, and a buy on a rebound from 2,389 after a false breakdown, with an intermediate target at 2,400 and a final target at 2,422. For sell positions, a confirmed break below 2,389 targets 2,371, and a short on a rebound from 2,400 after an unconfirmed upside breakout targets first 2,389, then 2,371. Both indicators are used as filters to weed out false moves rather than as standalone reasons to enter early — take action only after price actually confirms the specified levels.