20.10.202608:56 Analisis Forex & Kajian: All Attempts to Rally Failed

Today, gold remained under pressure, holding most of the previous session's losses after a 0.6% decline. Spot gold trades around $4,130/oz. Silver rose about 0.6% to $57.44/oz, and platinum and palladium also gained slightly.

The main headwind remains oil, which sits near a five-month high. Iran said it "has no choice" but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. lawmakers opposed Donald Trump's proposed diesel-supply deal with Russia. Expensive oil fuels inflation fears, making further Federal Reserve tightening more likely.

The U.S. Treasury market compounded pressure. Yields held on to the prior session's rise after a rebound in tech stocks reduced demand for bonds as a safe haven, pushing yields higher. For gold — which pays no interest — higher yields and more expensive borrowing remain a headwind.

Traders are now trying to guess the Fed's next move in the fight against inflation. Fed chair Kevin Warsh's Friday remarks, delivered before the blackout period, did not dispel expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at next week's meeting. As a result, the probability of a 25-bp hike at that meeting fell below 20% (down from almost two-thirds at the end of last month). Traders still see about a 90% chance of one more hike before year-end.

Recall that in October gold mostly held above $4,100 and consolidated after a more than 6% drop in September. It did that even amid a stronger dollar and higher bond yields. Since the US–Iran conflict began in late February, the metal is down roughly a fifth and remains negative year-to-date due to high inflation and yields.

This means gold is currently caught between two forces. Expensive oil and bets on further Fed hikes keep it from rallying, while its hold around $4,100 in October suggests the market isn't ready to force a sharp sell-off. I lean toward gold trading in a narrow range around current levels in the coming days; a meaningful advance is likely only if oil and yields fall substantially.

As for the technical picture of gold, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,192 to target $4,249, above which a breakout will be difficult. The further upside target is $4,304. On the downside, bears will target $4,124; if they succeed, a range breakdown would seriously damage bull positions and push gold down to $4,062, with the prospect of extending to $4,047.