01.10.202611:30 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Best employment result in three months

The dollar rose yesterday after US private sector hiring accelerated in September, adding 90,000 jobs, ADP Research data released on Wednesday showed. The figure was the strongest in three months and beat the median economist forecast of 75,000. After three months of slowing, the labor market has turned.

More than half of the gain came from education and healthcare — sectors with steady domestic demand and low sensitivity to interest-rate moves. Notable contributions also came from leisure & hospitality, construction and manufacturing.

What does this report mean for interest rates? A lot. Stable employment combined with resilient consumer spending has allowed the Fed to focus on fighting stubborn inflation without being distracted by labor market risks. Two weeks ago, the central bank raised rates for the first time since 2023, and many Fed officials have since described employment as strong and balanced. ADP's fresh data confirm that assessment.

For the inflation fight, firm hiring is an additional headwind: sustained employment supports household incomes, incomes fuel spending, and spending makes it harder for companies to lower prices.

Pay-growth details are also notable. Wages for workers who changed employers rose 7.3% year-on-year, while wages for those who stayed with the same employer rose 4.4%. The 2.9 percentage-point gap favors job seekers and works against companies facing rising personnel costs — which is why the Fed watches these numbers as closely as the consumer price index.

Remember that ADP's estimate is built from payroll data covering more than 26 million US private sector employees and is produced in partnership with Stanford's Digital Economy Lab. ADP results do not always match official employment statistics, so final judgments are better made after the government report.

This Friday the US Labor Department will publish the official jobs report, which also includes public sector hiring. Economists expect an increase of roughly 90,000 jobs, which would corroborate ADP's estimate. If the forecast holds, the odds of another Fed hike will rise, and the case for an imminent policy pivot will weaken.

In my view, Friday's report is likely to confirm the labor market's resilience. In that scenario, demand for the dollar should persist, and the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance in the months ahead. A policy reversal would require a clear cooling in employment — something the current dynamics do not indicate.

EUR/USD technicals

Buyers should be thinking about taking out 1.1346. Only that would allow a test of 1.1379. From there, a move to 1.1410 would be possible, but doing so without support from major players would be difficult. On the downside, I expect significant buying only around 1.1312. If no buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a new low at 1.1284 or to open longs from 1.1249.

GBP/USD technicals

Pound buyers need to take immediate resistance at 1.3270 to target 1.3307, above which further advances will be difficult. The next extended target is 1.3341. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of 1.3238; a break of that range would severely damage bull positions and push GBP/USD to 1.3206 with a prospect of extending to 1.3173.