28.09.202611:21 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Technical Analysis Indicates Further Downward Potential

The EUR/USD pair closed a small weekly bearish gap but lacks sufficient momentum to rise and remains unable to break above the round level of 1.1400.

Moreover, spot prices continue to fluctuate near the low recorded last Thursday, the lowest level since July 28, and remain vulnerable amid sustained demand for the US dollar.

Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's hawkish approach, concerns about inflation driven by rising oil prices have increased expectations of another interest rate hike in October, keeping US Treasury yields at elevated levels.

These factors, together with continued geopolitical uncertainty, particularly related to the conflict between the United States and Iran, are supporting the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and reinforcing the negative outlook for EUR/USD.

From a technical perspective, prices retain a clear bearish bias, remaining below key moving averages and, consequently, below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, with the histogram below the signal line, indicating continued selling pressure. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding around 28, signaling oversold conditions. This could slow further declines, but so far it has not resulted in any significant rebounds.

Therefore, it is advisable to wait for confirmation of selling pressure below the 1.1353 support level before opening positions targeting further weakness in the pair toward the current year's low of around 1.1322, recorded in June, and then toward the round level of 1.1300.

As for a potential recovery, any attempts to move higher are likely to attract new sellers in the supply area around 1.1450. A break above this level could help EUR/USD overcome the psychologically significant 1.1500 level. However, further gains are likely to be limited by the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at 1.1556.

To weaken the prevailing bearish sentiment and create opportunities for a more sustained short-term recovery, prices need to break above this barrier.

Upcoming US macroeconomic data, scheduled for release this week, could provide better trading opportunities. On Wednesday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the final US GDP data for the second quarter will be released. Attention should then turn to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could lead to further changes in the dynamics of the US dollar and the EUR/USD pair.

The accompanying table shows the percentage change in the US dollar against major currencies for the current month. The dollar has strengthened the most against the New Zealand dollar.