16.09.202613:54 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – September 16 (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.1544 price occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

The eurozone data were fairly positive: Italy's inflation for August came in line with forecasts, rising by 0.5%, while the region's industrial production for July declined by only 0.1%, compared with the sharper drop that had been expected. Formally, this is a positive signal for the euro, as the industrial sector is showing greater resilience to rising energy prices than the market had anticipated, while Italian inflation did not produce any negative surprises that could further complicate the ECB's already hawkish stance. However, as expected, the single currency reacted rather weakly to this data, although the market did attempt to push the pair higher during the first half of the day. In my view, the issue is not the quality of the data themselves but their place in the broader agenda: any medium-importance European releases are inevitably taking a back seat to the upcoming Fed meeting. This is why even better-than-expected industrial production figures failed to provide the euro with sustained momentum, and I believe the main move in EUR/USD should be expected only after the US central bank's decision this evening.

A rate hike to 4.0% is already almost fully priced in, meaning that the move itself is unlikely to be a surprise. Much more important will be the accompanying forecast and, of course, Kevin Warsh's press conference: his wording will determine whether the market interprets today's move as the end of the tightening cycle or merely the first step in a more prolonged series of rate hikes. If the Fed Chair gives a clear signal that further action is necessary, the dollar, in my view, will receive a new boost against a broad range of currencies.

For the euro, this would mean a further widening of the already significant divergence in monetary policy on the two sides of the Atlantic. Despite being the most hawkish central bank among the Group of Seven countries, the ECB still falls short of the Fed in terms of policy resolve if Warsh confirms a bias toward further tightening, and I believe this divergence will continue to be reflected directly in EUR/USD pricing.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1548 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1575. At 1.1575, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any rise in the euro today should be viewed only as a correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1530 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1548 and 1.1575 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1530 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1505, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1548 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1530 and 1.1505 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.