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Today, gold rose by 1 percent to $4,563.99 per ounce, heading for its third consecutive weekly gain and finishing the week approximately 4 percent higher. Silver increased by 1.3 percent to $68.98, with platinum and palladium also becoming more expensive.
The catalyst for the rally was the unexpected decision by the U.S. Treasury to increase the pace of long-term government debt repurchases, announced on Wednesday, amid concerns over the country's debt burden. This liquidity injection knocked down yields and the dollar while simultaneously pushing the metal upward. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed readiness to expand the repurchase of more expensive issues and announced that the administration would soon present a fiscal initiative to tackle the highest borrowing costs in years.
Notably, yields largely retraced their decline caused by the repurchase by the end of the week; however, this movement alone reflects concerns regarding the rapidly increasing government debt. This theme once fueled a multi-year rally in gold as investors sought alternative safe-haven assets, and it is now returning to the agenda.
Interestingly, gold has managed to hold its ground despite long Treasury yields remaining relatively high. This suggests that the rally is increasingly tied to dollar weakness and confidence in U.S. fiscal or monetary policy, rather than simply to a narrative of falling yields.
If gold closes above the 200-day moving average, which is around $4,514 per ounce, it will provide an important technical signal after several unsuccessful attempts to regain momentum.
Nonetheless, the roughly 11 percent rise since the beginning of the month could be limited by the return of high energy prices, which keep inflation risks and bets on a tightening Fed policy on the table. Oil is also on track for a sharp weekly rise after President Trump's threat to further crush the Iranian economy overshadowed prospects for a forthcoming deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to take out the nearest resistance at $4,607. This will allow them to target $4,656, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The most distant target will be around $4,708. In the event of a gold drop, bears will attempt to take control of $4,546. If successful, a breakout from this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and drive gold down to a low of $4,481 with the prospect of reaching $4,432.
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