04.08.202613:04 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – August 4

Today, only the Canadian dollar generated a trade based on the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not execute any trades using the Momentum strategy.

As expected, the secondary European economic data had little impact on the euro, and the single currency traded without a notable reaction during the first half of the day. The absence of UK economic releases also played its part, allowing the pound to post modest gains during the European session. Without new inflation, employment, or business activity data, traders had little reason to revise their positions, as these indicators typically shape interest rate expectations.

However, the market's attention now turns to a much more important batch of U.S. data, including the trade balance, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and factory orders. The JOLTS report is particularly important because it reflects labor market conditions and serves as one of the Federal Reserve's key indicators when assessing labor market tightness, while factory orders provide insight into business investment activity. The trade balance measures the difference between the value of exports and imports of goods and services. A further deterioration could indicate weakening competitiveness among U.S. producers in global markets or stronger domestic consumer demand.

The JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be the key release, serving as an important indicator of labor market health. A high number of job openings combined with low labor turnover signals strong demand for workers and confidence among employees. Conversely, rising labor turnover alongside slowing growth in job openings may point to emerging challenges, such as slowing economic growth or a potential increase in unemployment.

For both the euro and the pound, this data block represents a direct source of risk. Strong U.S. figures could strengthen the dollar and put downward pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while weaker-than-expected results would weigh on the U.S. currency and provide both European currencies with room to advance.

If the data come in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little or no reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1520 may push the euro toward 1.1557 and 1.1590.
• A breakout below 1.1500 may send the euro lower toward 1.1480 and 1.1460.

GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3450 may lift the pound toward 1.3470 and 1.3500.
• A breakout below 1.3420 may trigger a decline toward 1.3390 and 1.3365.

USD/JPY

• A breakout above 157.93 may drive the dollar toward 158.28 and 158.57.
• A breakout below 157.69 may trigger a sell-off toward 157.40 and 157.05.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return to the Level) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions if the price makes a false breakout above 1.1519 and then returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price makes a false breakout below 1.1497 and then returns above this level.

GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions if the price makes a false breakout above 1.3452 and then returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price makes a false breakout below 1.3417 and then returns above this level.

AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions if the price makes a false breakout above 0.7038 and then returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price makes a false breakout below 0.7015 and then returns above this level.

USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions if the price makes a false breakout above 1.4047 and then returns below this level.
• I will look for long positions if the price makes a false breakout below 1.4024 and then returns above this level.