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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair posted another advance before reversing lower and consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1395. As a result, the euro may continue to decline today towards the next Fibonacci level at 1.1325 (0.0%). A rebound from this level would favour the euro and could trigger a corrective recovery towards 1.1395.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish, despite the prolonged—albeit weak—attempt by the bulls to regain control. The most recently completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few pips, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. The geopolitical backdrop remains persistently negative, as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to affect the Strait of Hormuz, while negotiations are currently on hold. A break above 1.1473 would signal that the bearish trend has likely ended, but over the past month, bulls have shown little strength.
Monday's news flow once again appeared to favour the bulls. Overnight, reports emerged that US strikes on Iran had ceased and that Donald Trump was prepared to give Tehran another opportunity to reach a deal. On Monday, the US President stated that negotiations with Iran were progressing reasonably well, although he did not rule out the possibility of renewed military strikes. In reality, if negotiations are continuing at all, they are taking place only through intermediaries, and market participants can judge for themselves how effective such talks are likely to be. Nevertheless, the ceasefire remains a positive development, with oil prices, for example, reacting by moving lower. Currency traders, however, did not appear convinced by Trump's remarks and continued buying the US dollar. The US durable goods orders report, also released on Monday, came in significantly weaker than market expectations. Even so, traders ignored this data as well, and bears remained in control for most of the trading session.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair remains locked in a sideways range. A sustained move below 1.1411 supports the case for a continuation of the decline, although price action has become increasingly erratic, with frequent reversals and relatively subdued trading activity. None of the technical indicators is currently showing signs of an emerging divergence. The descending trend channel remains intact.
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 9,842 long positions and opened 18,891 short positions. Over the seven weeks spanning February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared as a result of the conflict involving Iran. During the past seventeen weeks, market positioning has become more balanced amid the perceived ceasefire and growing hopes that the conflict would come to an end. Speculators currently hold approximately 220,000 long positions and 261,000 short positions. Bears are once again regaining the upper hand.
From a longer-term perspective, however, large institutional traders continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Naturally, the wide range of global events seen in recent years continues to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market remains focused on developments in the Middle East, where the conflict appears to end and then flare up again repeatedly. Traders initially ignored the ceasefire and later paid little attention to the renewed escalation. As a result, geopolitics is no longer the sole factor determining the direction of the US dollar.
United States
The economic calendar for July 28 contains only two scheduled releases, neither of which is likely to attract significant market attention. Bulls are currently ignoring virtually all incoming economic data, while bears continue to dominate regardless of the news flow. Consequently, the impact of macroeconomic releases on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal or non-existent.
Long positions may be considered following a confirmed close above 1.1395, with upward targets at 1.1438 and 1.1472. Short positions became valid after a confirmed close below 1.1395 on the hourly chart, with a downward target at 1.1325. Those positions can continue to be held today.
Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.
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