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The market learned that when the US president declared the ceasefire with Iran over, and Wall Street rushed to price in a fresh escalation.
Morning panic cost the S&P 500 about 1.1%. By the close, the index had recovered most of that move, trimming the loss to 0.3% and leaving it testing the 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq 100 finished higher. Materials, consumer names, and financials — the sectors most sensitive to energy prices and funding costs — underperformed.
US equity indices dynamics
Oil reacted to Trump's comments with the largest one-day jump since May. Fears that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could narrow to a trickle forced a broad sell-off in equities and bonds. Still, Citigroup Global Markets urges not to panic: it views the episode as a short-term reversal and notes that the president still appears intent on a diplomatic outcome. Trading TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out") looks back in vogue.
Washington–Tehran tit-for-tat exchanges have interrupted fragile diplomacy before, but investors used to digest such noise over weekends when markets were closed. This time, Wall Street prices risks in real time. The question is whether Trump's bombastic statements become the prelude to a fragile deal or to a new escalation.
Uncertainty comes at a bad time. Futures are pricing in an >80% chance of at least one Fed hike before year-end, and the June FOMC minutes signaled that inflation "remains high and continues to rise" because of oil, tariffs, and the AI investment boom.
Tech capex dynamics
Meanwhile, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta raised capital expenditures by 74% y/y to $168bn in the June quarter, and the S&P 500 consensus EPS for Q2 is up 22%. Goldman Sachs warns expectations are so high that even strong results may not be enough to sustain a new leg higher.
Nvidia, which lost roughly $1tn of market cap in under two months, now trades cheaper than the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 on a forward P/E basis — something not seen since early 2019. The former market favourite trades at about 18x forward earnings versus more than 20x for the broad index.
Is the sell-off a dip to buy? Edwards Asset Management says yes: any weakness over the coming weeks is an entry opportunity, not a trigger to flee.
Technically, the daily chart shows that a pin-bar with a long lower wick has formed, signaling bear exhaustion. A return to the pin-bar high at 7,492, and a subsequent breakout above fair value at 7,505, would be buy signals.
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