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Gold surged today to $4,100 per ounce. The paradox of the moment is that this rise occurs against a backdrop of sharp escalation in the Middle East, whereas previously, the metal reacted to such developments with a decline.
The second day of American strikes on Iran has raised energy prices and intensified inflation concerns but has not pressured gold. The scale of the situation is impressive. The attacks, which according to the US Central Command were aimed at weakening Iran's ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, began just hours after President Trump stated that the ceasefire, in his view, had ended. Tehran threatened a large-scale retaliatory operation against American bases in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, oil prices surged, and Washington definitively revoked the exemption that allowed Iran to sell oil worldwide.
However, pressure on gold could return at any moment. As the past months have shown, escalations in hostilities raise traders' concerns that the Federal Reserve will need to keep rates high for longer to combat persistent inflation. The minutes from the June Fed meeting, published on Wednesday, only reinforced these concerns. Some committee members saw grounds for a rate hike at that time, although they ultimately supported the decision to keep it unchanged. In a broader sense, the minutes reflected the Fed's growing concern about inflation while simultaneously easing fears about the labor market. Higher borrowing rates are traditionally a hindrance for gold, which does not yield interest, and this factor currently outweighs the geopolitical situation.
Market sentiment remains notably cautious rather than panicky. The market has heard the alarm from the Middle East but is not yet perceiving it as a full-blown crisis. This is an important observation. Traders are clearly aware of the seriousness of the situation but are not yet ready to bet that the current escalation will become more than another episode in the protracted cycle of war and negotiations.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at $4,124. This will allow targeting $4,186, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be at $4,249. If gold declines, bears will attempt to take control of $4,062. If they succeed, a range breakout will deal a serious blow to bullish positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,008 with the potential to reach $3,954.
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