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The EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the European currency on Thursday and began moving higher toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1409. A rebound from this level today will favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1290. Consolidation above the 1.1409 level will increase the likelihood of further gains for the euro toward the next corrective level at 76.4% – 1.1514.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low and is still developing. Geopolitical conditions have improved significantly in recent weeks; however, the Federal Reserve triggered a new bearish offensive that has yet to run its course. A full-scale bearish advance would require additional factors, which I do not currently see, but the bulls are offering virtually no resistance at the moment.
The news backdrop on Thursday could have prompted fresh bearish attacks. While the reports on durable goods orders and personal consumption prices were neutral, U.S. GDP delivered a positive surprise. However, even bears need a pause from time to time, and it appears that moment has arrived. We did not see any new bearish attacks yesterday, which may give bulls an opportunity to recover at least part of their recent losses. In my view, the bears do not currently have enough reasons to launch a new offensive, although their strength over the past week and a half cannot be ignored and may still persist. Therefore, a renewed decline in the pair cannot yet be completely ruled out. Today's news background will be very light, and the market is no longer reacting to geopolitical developments as strongly as before. Otherwise, the dollar would not have been able to post such strong gains. I expect calm trading today and a gradual return of the euro toward 1.1409.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below the 100.0% correction level at 1.1411, allowing traders to expect a further decline in the euro. A bullish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, while the RSI indicator is showing an overbought condition, both of which may halt the bears' advance. Following the formation of these signals, the pair began moving higher toward the 1.1411 level.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 8,441 long positions and closed 11,980 short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated due to the war involving Iran. Over the past twelve weeks, however, the situation has stabilized amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East, and bulls have once again regained the upper hand. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 228,000, while short positions amount to 193,000.
Overall, large market participants continue to view the euro favorably over the long term. Naturally, various global developments—which have been plentiful in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where military action has been paused and serious negotiations have begun that could ultimately lead to peace. However, the market is still completely ignoring the improvement in the geopolitical environment, as well as many other factors that are supportive of the euro.
News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:
The economic calendar for June 26 contains only one entry, and it is far from the most important. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday may be extremely limited or absent altogether.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Long positions may be considered today if the pair consolidates above the 1.1409 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1514. New short positions may be considered if the pair rebounds from the 1.1409 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1290.
The Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.
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