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18.06.202611:49 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Memorandum of understanding? Truce with Iran, Trump's failure, Warsh's novelties. Trader's calendar on June 18-19

Switzerland's diplomatic service has officially confirmed emergency talks between US and Iranian delegations in Burgenstock. The meeting, scheduled for Friday, will bring to the same table not only the direct parties to the conflict but also key international mediators — Pakistan and Qatar — to discuss the first practical steps for implementing the peace agreements. On the eve of the meeting, Donald Trump publicly announced that he had personally signed a historic memorandum of understanding, a claim later confirmed by representatives of official Tehran. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif hurried to state on social media that the document acquired legal force immediately upon signing. According to his statement, as part of the initial reciprocal concessions, the Islamic Republic agreed to immediately resume free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while US naval forces are to lift the months?long maritime blockade of the region.

Congress outraged by Trump's deal

The White House's back?channel memorandum immediately provoked a wave of sharp criticism on Capitol Hill. Influential chairs of House committees on Foreign Affairs, Intelligence and Armed Services — Greg Meeks, Jim Himes and Adam Smith — sent an official three?page demand to Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling for full disclosure of the memorandum's hidden details. Lawmakers insist on being provided the complete text of the memorandum and its accompanying protocols, and they demand clarification of the White House's strategy regarding Iran's ballistic program and Tehran's funding of proxy groups in the Middle East. Particular outrage centers on provisions concerning the fate of Iran's frozen financial assets and the scale of sanctions relief. State Department officials are trying to smooth over the dispute, insisting on the transparency of their actions to the American people, but this has not stopped Senate leaders from calling Trump's initiative a failure. Chuck Schumer called the negotiation results the worst outcome for Washington, Mark Warner refused to call it a victory, and Richard Blumenthal characterized the deal as an unconditional capitulation by the United States.

Confusion over the memorandum

The procedure for formalizing the peace agreement has provoked some confusion in the information space. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei categorically denied rumors of any celebratory events in Europe, stating that the document was finally agreed and signed by the parties exclusively in electronic form. According to Tehran, no in?person ceremony on Swiss soil is planned. Nevertheless, leading US networks, including CNN, citing White House sources, continue to report that an official diplomatic reception with the participation of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance will still take place on Friday. Despite differing accounts of the format, the fact remains: Donald Trump has already put his signature on the text, and certified copies of the memorandum have been promptly sent to the Iranian side and the mediating states. Western commentators emphasize that this legal step starts the countdown for fulfillment of the commitments assumed by Washington and Tehran.

Memorandum of understanding? Memorandum of understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran

1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, together with their allies in the current conflict, hereby sign this Memorandum of Understanding to declare the immediate and final cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, and commit not to initiate war or any military operations against one another in the future, to refrain from the threat or use of force against one another, and to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. A final agreement will confirm the definitive end of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, and will enshrine any additional provisions outlined in this paragraph.
2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from intervention in one another's internal affairs.
3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to negotiate and conclude a final agreement within a period not exceeding 60 days; this period may be extended by mutual consent of the parties.
4. Immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States of America will commence lifting the maritime blockade and removing any obstacles or impediments affecting the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully terminate the maritime blockade within 30 days. During this period, the intensity of vessel traffic will be commensurate with pre?conflict shipping volumes being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. In addition, the United States of America undertakes to withdraw its armed forces from areas adjacent to the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days following the conclusion of the final agreement.
5. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make all necessary efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels for a period of 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and back. Commercial navigation will begin immediately; taking into account the need to remove technical and military obstacles and conduct demining work by the Islamic Republic of Iran, full shipping operations will be ensured within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will engage in dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman on future management and provision of maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, consulting with other coastal states of the Persian Gulf, in accordance with international law and the sovereign rights of states bordering the Strait of Hormuz.
6. The United States of America undertakes, together with regional partners, to develop a final, agreed plan for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran with financing of not less than $300 billion. The implementation mechanism for this plan will be finally approved under the terms of the final agreement within 60 days. The United States of America will issue all necessary licenses as well as provide required exceptions and authorizations to enable the relevant financial transactions.
7. The United States of America undertakes to lift all forms of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including sanctions imposed pursuant to United Nations Security Council resolutions and resolutions of the IAEA Board of Governors, as well as all unilateral US sanctions (both primary and secondary), according to a schedule to be agreed in the final agreement. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the aforementioned issue of sanctions removal and express their intention to address these matters immediately in negotiations to reach mutual agreement.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran confirms that it will not acquire or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to resolve the disposition of stockpiles of enriched material in accordance with a mechanism to be agreed by the parties pursuant to the schedule referred to in paragraph 7; as a minimum requirement, this will provide for on?site downblending (dilution) of material under IAEA supervision. The parties also agree to discuss enrichment and other agreed topics related to the peaceful nuclear needs of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on acceptable principles to be enshrined in the final agreement. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this paragraph, and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledges the paramount importance of the nuclear issues set forth above. The parties express their intention to address these matters immediately in negotiations to reach mutual agreement.
9. Pending the conclusion of the final agreement, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose new sanctions nor deploy additional forces to the region.
10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding and until sanctions are lifted, the U.S. Department of the Treasury will issue authorizations (exceptions) permitting the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, as well as the provision of all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation and the like.
11. The United States of America undertakes to ensure full availability for use of frozen or otherwise restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon fulfillment of the provisions of this Memorandum. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will agree in negotiations on procedures for unlocking these funds. Such funds — whether held in original accounts or subject to transfer — shall be fully available for payments to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America will issue all necessary licenses and authorizations to this end.
12. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to establish an executive mechanism to monitor the successful implementation of this Memorandum of Understanding and continued compliance with the final agreement.
13. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding and subject to the commencement and continued implementation of the measures set out in paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this Memorandum, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will begin negotiations on the final agreement exclusively with respect to the remaining provisions.
14. The final agreement will be endorsed by a binding resolution of the United Nations Security Council.

Kevin Warsh cancels forecasts

The US central bank has officially said goodbye to the long?standing practice of publishing long?term monetary guidance. After his debut meeting, Kevin Warsh announced that the Fed's leadership considers the use of forward guidance completely inappropriate in current conditions. As a result of this step, the regulator's final statement has been reduced to a concise set of general phrases about the macroeconomic landscape. The dismantling also affected the famous dot plot: the new chart contains only 18 individual projections instead of the usual 19, since the new chair has refused, on principle, to disclose his own expectations about future rate moves.

The US central bank changes priorities

Instead of empty promises, the Fed is launching a large internal restructuring, creating five specialized working groups. The first three teams will focus on auditing communication channels, reviewing the structure of the Fed's bloated balance sheet and checking the statistical data sources in use. The fourth team will assess labor?market productivity under the pressure of AI expansion, and the fifth will concentrate on containing inflationary processes. The chair emphasized that these tectonic shifts do not mean abandoning the classic 2% inflation target. On the contrary, Warsh reminded that the US economy has been unable to reach that target for five consecutive years, but there are currently no compelling reasons to revise the baseline goal.

Peace with Iran didn't help stocks. What about the dollar?

By keeping borrowing costs in the tight 3.50%–3.75% range, the Fed has initiated a radical change in its regulatory regime. Warsh's decision to rely solely on current economic data rather than handing out promises instantly pushed volatility higher on the exchanges. Investors, realizing the prospect of a prolonged period of expensive money, rushed to sell risky assets, causing the S&P 500 to drop 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 to fall 1% while the dollar strengthened and government bond yields spiked. Wall Street is now pricing in the risk of another rate hike before year?end. Markets are in a quandary: on one hand, the signing of a temporary peace pact between Washington and Tehran lowered oil prices and supported futures, but on the other hand the new Fed leadership's uncompromising hawkish stance continues to squeeze equity valuations, gold and other credit?sensitive instruments.

Economic calendar (all times local / data are presented as prev. / act. / cons.):

18 June, 01:45 / New Zealand / *** / Q1 GDP growth / prev.: 1.3% / act.: 1.3% / cons.: 1.1% / NZD/USD – down

The quarterly GDP figure reflects the total value of goods and services produced in the country and is a key indicator of the overall state of the national economy. Analysts forecast Q1 growth to slow to 1.1%; confirmation of this would indicate cooling activity and weaken the New Zealand dollar.

18 June, 09:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Employment growth in April / prev.: 24k / act.: 148k / cons.: 75k / GBP/USD – down

Employment rose by 148,000 in the previous reporting period, the highest increase since last summer, driven by strong hiring among employees and the self?employed. The overall employment rate for ages 16–64 remained stable near 75.0%, and the number of people working a second job fell slightly. Analysts expect a more modest increase of 75,000 in April; if confirmed, that would signal a slowdown in the labor market and weaken the pound.

18 June, 12:00 / Eurozone / ** / Construction output in April / prev.: -3.0% / act.: -1.2% / cons.: -1.6% / EUR/USD – down

Construction output in the Eurozone fell 1.2% year?on?year in March, marking a third consecutive monthly decline amid weak building activity in Germany, France and Spain. Mild support came from civil engineering. April is expected to remain negative at -1.6%; confirmation would point to a protracted industry downturn and weigh on the euro.

18 June, 14:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Bank of England rate decision & press conference / prev.: 3.75% / act.: 3.75% / cons.: 3.75% / GBP/USD – volatile

The Bank of England is highly likely to keep its policy rate at 3.75% due to concerns that the Middle East conflict involving Iran could spark another surge in energy prices. Although May inflation was recorded at 2.8%, the BoE is mindful of risks that firms may pass higher production costs onto consumers. The expected hold at 3.75% will focus attention on the subsequent press conference; a hawkish tone there would create high volatility for the pound.

18 June, 15:30 / Canada / ** / Producer price inflation (May) / prev.: 7.8% / act.: 11.4% / cons.: 14.0% / USD/CAD – down

Canadian producer prices jumped 11.4% year?on?year in April, hitting a multiyear high amid a logistics crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Supply constraints on key sea routes drove up wholesale oil and commodity prices. May is forecast to accelerate further to 14.0%, pointing to strong price pressure and likely strengthening the Canadian dollar.

18 June, 15:30 / United States / *** / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 225k / act.: 229k / cons.: 225k / USDX (six?currency US dollar index) – up

Initial jobless claims rose moderately to 229,000 in early June, signaling a slight local deterioration alongside a small uptick in continuing claims. Nevertheless, overall layoff intensity remains low, confirming labor?market resilience despite federal sector job cuts. The forecast for the current week is 225,000; meeting that would confirm employment stability and support the dollar.

18 June, 15:30 / United States / ** / Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity index (June, leading) / prev.: 26.7 pt / act.: -0.4 pt / cons.: 10.0 pt / USDX (six?currency US dollar index) – up

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -0.4 in May, reflecting a local contraction after a strong prior month. Shipments and new orders plunged to their lowest since April 2025. Employment conditions remain mildly weak: the employment subindex edged up slightly but stayed negative for the third time in four months. Price measures eased but remain above long-run averages, and most firms keep an optimistic six-month outlook. The June leading report is forecast to rebound strongly to 10.0; confirmation would signal recovery in manufacturing and boost the dollar.

Other scheduled ECB appearances: 18 June, 10:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel, ECB Governing Council / EUR/USD 18 June, 13:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Frank Elderson, ECB Executive Board / EUR/USD 18 June, 15:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board / EUR/USD 18 June, 15:15 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane, ECB Supervisory Board / EUR/USD

Besides, speeches from leading central bank officials are scheduled this week. Their comments typically trigger FX market volatility as they may signal regulators' future rate plans.

Svetlana Radchenko,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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