21.04.202613:04 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – April 21st

The pound and the Australian dollar performed very well today using the Momentum strategy. I did not take any trades using Mean Reversion.

Very weak data on eurozone business sentiment put pressure on the euro. Indicators reflecting business expectations for future conditions showed a noticeable deterioration due to the war in the Middle East, signaling growing concerns about the eurozone's economic outlook. Following the release of negative statistics, investors and traders began revising their positions, shifting toward safer assets. The decline in the sentiment index, which exceeded analysts' forecasts, became a catalyst for taking profits on long euro positions opened yesterday.

In the second half of the day, financial markets will focus on the release of key macroeconomic data from the United States. Two important indicators reflecting consumer demand and activity in the housing market will be published: retail sales and pending home sales. Retail sales data is one of the most important indicators of consumer spending, which makes up a significant portion of US GDP. An increase in the indicator would signal strong consumer demand supporting economic growth and could have a positive impact on the US dollar. Conversely, a decline in sales—especially if larger than expected—may raise concerns about slowing economic activity and lead to a weaker dollar.

At the same time, the report on pending home sales will be released. This indicator reflects activity in the secondary housing market and serves as a leading indicator for the real estate sector as a whole. Both reports may trigger notable volatility in the currency market. Traders will closely analyze the released figures, comparing them with expectations.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1770 may lead to a rise toward 1.1800 and 1.1830
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1750 may lead to a decline toward 1.1730 and 1.1705

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3515 may lead to a rise toward 1.3530 and 1.3550
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3485 may lead to a decline toward 1.3450 and 1.3430

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 159.36 may lead to a rise toward 159.60 and 159.84
• Selling on a breakout below 159.10 may lead to a decline toward 158.87 and 158.57

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1770 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1745 and a return to this level

For GBP/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3518 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3485 and a return to this level

For AUD/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7166 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7142 and a return to this level

For USD/CAD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3669 and a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3647 and a return to this level