15.04.202612:29 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – April 15th

The euro and the Canadian dollar were traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy, but strong reversals did not materialize. Using the Momentum strategy, I traded the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen.

Demand for risk assets quickly declined as traders began to realize that the conflict between the United States and Iran has not been resolved, and all statements remain just statements for now, while the US continues to build up military forces in the Persian Gulf. This news had a strong impact on financial markets, triggering a wave of uncertainty and speculation. Traders, concerned about a possible escalation of geopolitical tensions, began to reassess their positions, favoring safer assets.

The second half of the day promises to be eventful in financial markets, as traders will closely monitor the release of key macroeconomic reports and speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve. An important indicator of the state of US industry will be the Empire Manufacturing Index. This indicator, reflecting business activity in New York State's manufacturing sector, may provide insight into trends in the US economy. Any deviation from forecasts is expected to have a noticeable impact on investor sentiment and financial asset dynamics.

At the same time, attention will be focused on the NAHB Housing Market Index. The dynamics of this index are important for assessing the condition of the construction sector and related industries, which in turn affects the overall economic outlook. Strong housing market data could support the US dollar.

In addition, speeches by two members of the Federal Open Market Committee—Michael S. Barr and Michelle Bowman—will take place in the second half of the day. Statements by Fed officials always attract increased attention, as they may contain hints about future monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate prospects amid the US-Iran conflict.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1800 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1825 and 1.1850;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1770 may lead to a decline toward 1.1735 and 1.1680;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3560 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3585 and 1.3615;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3545 may lead to a decline toward 1.3510 and 1.3480;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.13 may lead to dollar growth toward 159.40 and 159.84;
• Selling on a breakout below 158.80 may lead to a sell-off toward 158.57 and 158.25;

Mean Reversion Strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1805 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1775 and a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3576 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3540 and a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7157 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7135 and a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3779 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3756 and a return to this level;