01.04.202608:48 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 1. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 159.63 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 159.29.

Yesterday, the drop in the US currency followed Donald Trump's statement that the US would end its anti-Iran campaign regardless of whether Tehran is ready to negotiate with Washington. However, given the ongoing movement of ground formations to the Middle East, such statements by the American president raise doubts.

Trump's stated goal—to calm the markets and reduce tensions—was achieved, but this effect is likely to be temporary. At any moment, traders may see signs of new escalation, which would return demand for the dollar. US military activities, including the redeployment of additional troops and the increase of naval presence in the Persian Gulf, confirm the seriousness of the American administration's intentions, rather than plans for a swift conclusion to any military operation.

Such rhetoric from the US president may be part of the pressure on Iran to secure more favorable terms in any possible negotiations. However, in conditions of heightened uncertainty, markets tend to react to signals of potential clashes, leading to an immediate decline in the value of the dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 158.85 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.47 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 159.47, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.28 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase can be expected to the opposite levels of 158.85 and 159.47.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 158.28 level (the red line on the chart) is updated, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.56 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 158.85 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 158.28 and 157.56.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.