26.03.202609:33 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Stock market on March 26: S&P 500 and NASDAQ face renewed pressure

Yesterday, equity indices closed modestly higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.54%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.77%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 0.66%.

However, already today, index futures rolled lower, and oil prices climbed. The situation in global financial markets is characterized by ambiguity, fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and mixed rhetoric from key players. Futures on major equity indices showed negative action during Asian trading, reflecting heightened investor caution. This decline in risk appetite is largely driven by persistent tensions in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on market sentiment.

At the same time, oil prices moved higher as a direct result of the worsening geopolitical situation in the region. Any escalation, or even hints of one, in this strategically important area invariably raises concerns about the stability of energy supplies, thereby pushing crude prices up.

Conflicting signals from the United States and Iran about the prospects for ceasefire talks do not help clarity. Uncertainty over the outcome of diplomatic efforts exacerbates the overall picture, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see stance and reduce risk assets in their portfolios.

Asian indices fell by 1%, snapping a two-day advance, as high energy prices threatened to stoke inflation and slow economic growth.

As I noted above, Brent crude rose by 2% to roughly $104.30 per barrel, recovering after Wednesday's decline. Throughout the week, the US has pushed for continued talks, but Iran has rejected them and set its own conditions.

The rise in oil prices was reflected in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed by three basis points to 4.36%. Since the start of the war, the benchmark yield has added roughly 40 basis points, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may keep rates elevated in response to accelerating inflation.

"Markets have been extremely headline driven as we keep getting different, conflicting messages on the Iran situation," IG International said. "Markets need more certainty on what the outcome would be. Until there is agreement on the truce terms, unfortunately we will still see these swings."

Gold lost 1.1% to settle at $4,450 an ounce, and silver plunged by 2% to roughly $70 an ounce. As sentiment weakened, Bitcoin slipped below $70,000.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,577. That would help the index gain upside momentum and would open the pave for a thrust to $6,590. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $6,603, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must step up around $6,563. A break below that level would quickly bring the trading instrument back to $6,552 and could open the way to $6,537.