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Yesterday, equity indices closed with another decline. The S&P 500 fell by 0.37%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.84%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.18%.
However, at the very end of the US session, the equity markets showed a noticeable rally, while oil prices moved lower. These moves were the result of diplomatic efforts by the United States, which helped feed tentative optimism about a possible easing of the Middle East conflict. Brent crude fell by 3.9% to $100.37 per barrel, supporting a 1.8% rise in Asian equity markets and gains in sovereign bonds. The two-year Treasury yield, sensitive to shifts in monetary policy, slid by one basis point to 3.87%.
Against the backdrop of rumours about talks between the United States and Iran via third parties, investors' fears of prolonged energy shocks caused by regional instability began to ease. A reduced probability of a sustained large-scale conflict, which has already materially disrupted energy supplies, lowered price pressure on crude. That, in turn, had a positive effect on market sentiment, where lower oil often equates to reduced inflation risks and improved prospects for consumers and businesses.
Today, US equity futures are up, while European contracts point to a firm open.
As I noted above, sentiment is being supported by a 15-point US plan aimed at helping to end the war with Iran. Earlier, Israel's Channel 12 reported that Washington is seeking a month?long ceasefire. Nevertheless, attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz — the vital shipping artery for oil flows from the Middle East — which in practice remains closed to vessels.
According to CIBC Private Wealth Group, oil remains the "spearhead" in this headline-driven market. Reports of a possible 30-day truce soften the worst pricing scenarios and concerns about demand destruction. Signs of a potential resolution remove part of the risk premium from the market, the bank added.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,603. This would help the index gain upside momentum and could open the path to a new level at $6,616. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $6,627, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,590. A break below that level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,577 and open the way to $6,563.
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