19.03.202608:50 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Gold Has Returned to a Decline

Yesterday's 4% drop in gold was merely a prelude to a new wave of pressure on the precious metal. Today, we are witnessing a continuation of this trend despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The main factor driving gold prices has been the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and take a more hawkish stance regarding future monetary policy.

This decision from the Fed has had a far more significant impact on gold quotations than the escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict. In an environment where the central bank of the world's largest economy is determined to combat inflation by keeping interest rates high, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is diminished. Investors prefer less risky, higher-yielding instruments, such as government bonds, whose yields are rising alongside interest rates.

Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar adds further pressure to commodity prices, including gold. Since gold is denominated in US dollars, its cost for holders of other currencies increases as the dollar weakens. The current strengthening of the dollar, driven by the Fed's hawkish policy, makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, reducing demand and consequently the price. Thus, the combination of these factors—the Fed's decision and the strengthening dollar—determines the current negative dynamics for gold.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at their current level during its latest meeting, forecasting only one rate cut this year, with Chair Jerome Powell stating that progress in reducing inflation is required for any cuts to occur.

"The strengthening dollar and the overall tightening of monetary policy by central banks in developed countries create an uncertain short-term trajectory for gold," stated ABC Refinery Australia Pty. "However, if inflation rises faster than interest rates, a decline in real rates may help gold in the medium term."

Despite this, the price of the precious metal is still approximately 12% higher than at the beginning of the year, although the upward momentum has stalled in recent weeks, as expectations for a near-term rate cut have weakened and some investors have sold the metal to meet margin requirements in other assets within their portfolios.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4835. This will allow for targeting $4893, above which breaking through may be quite challenging. The further goal will be around $4975. In the event of a price drop, bears will attempt to take control of $4771. If they succeed, breaking this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push gold down to a low of $4708, with the prospect of reaching $4647.