18.02.202609:58 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Stock market on February 18: S&P 500 and NASDAQ edge higher

Stock indices closed modestly higher yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by about 0.10%, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.14%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged up roughly 0.02%.

US index futures ticked up alongside gains in Asia as the recent AI-driven selling pressure appears to have stabilized. Precious metals staged a recovery, and European bourses opened on a strong note.

The dollar firmed slightly versus most G10 currencies, while the New Zealand dollar led losers after the RBNZ left interest rates unchanged and traders pared back further rate-hike bets.

After several months of AI-fueled gains, markets remain volatile as investors weigh concerns about disruptive effects and doubts that heavy investment will deliver quick, sizeable returns. That dynamic matters especially in Asia, which is home to much of the world's chip design and equipment manufacturing.

According to Morgan Stanley, the market is close to record highs. However, sharp sell-offs, which often interrupt uptrends, make some investors feel otherwise. The company also warns that if this pattern continues, it could create a fragile market environment, despite a broader upward trend.

Investors are also parsing clues on the Fed's interest-rate path. Today brings the minutes from the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, where policymakers left rates unchanged.

Yesterday, Fed Governor Michael Barr said that rates likely need to remain on hold for a while until there is clearer evidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% goal. At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that further rate cuts could be possible this year if inflation keeps trending lower.

As for the S&P 500 technical analysis, today's task for buyers is to overcome the immediate resistance level of $6,854. A successful push above that level would signal renewed upside momentum and open the door to $6,871. Maintaining control above $6,882 would further strengthen the bulls' case. On the downside, buyers should defend around $6,837. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,819 and could open the path to $6,801.