06.02.202606:02 Analisis Forex & Kajian: How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on February 6? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Trade Analysis of Thursday:

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair found absolutely no grounds for active movements on Thursday. Overall, we agree with the market's price action yesterday, as there was indeed nothing for traders to react to throughout the day. As we warned, the first European Central Bank meeting of the new year was a formality. The ECB had no reason to change rates at the beginning of February. Yes, inflation in the Eurozone slowed to 1.7%, but this was known a day before the meeting. 1.7% is, of course, lower than the 2% target the ECB aims for, but inflation cannot be exactly 2% every single month. What matters is the average or median value over six months or a year. In general, if the ECB decides to ease monetary policy again, it will not be in the near future, as Christine Lagarde practically stated openly. For the ECB to resume rate cuts, inflation must remain below 2% for a sustained period.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Thursday. Volatility throughout the day was very weak, and prices did not even approach significant areas and levels. Thus, beginner traders had no grounds to open positions on Thursday.

How to Trade on Friday:

The hourly timeframe continues the downward correction, which can be considered a local trend. Let us remind you that the flat phase, which lasted for seven months, has ended. If this is the case, the long-term upward trend has resumed at the beginning of 2026. Therefore, we anticipate a new medium-term decline in the dollar. The fundamental backdrop remains very challenging for the U.S. currency, which fully supports further upward movement.

On Friday, beginner traders may consider new short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1745-1.1754 area, with a target of 1.1655-1.1666. A price bounce from the area of 1.1745-1.1754 will allow for opening longs with a target of 1.1830-1.1837.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, 1.2092-1.2104. Today, in the Eurozone, attention is focused only on Germany's industrial production report. At the same time, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will be published. Neither report is crucial, so throughout the day, weak movements close to a flat may be observed again.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.