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Executive Summary: Where Is the AI Boom Heading?
Tech sector capitalization is hitting record highs, turning AI into a macroeconomic supercycle. According to Morgan Stanley and Investing.com, the AI boom accounts for about 25% of US GDP growth, while record infrastructure investments are forcing investment banks to lift their long-term forecasts.
HBM and Chip Shortages: Demand for AI chips and next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is outstripping supply in an avalanche-like manner. According to the SIA, global semiconductor sales skyrocketed by 25% year-over-year at the beginning of 2026. Yahoo Finance notes that the capacity of market leaders is completely sold out, and the hardware deficit will drag on until the end of 2027, ensuring high margins for suppliers.
Energy Sector Reboot: The AI boom has triggered a massive investment cycle in the utilities sector. Goldman Sachs estimates that data centers will account for about half of all US electricity consumption growth through 2030. Against this backdrop, GE Vernova's backlog reached $163 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to $200 billion by 2027.
Acceleration of Corporate Capex: Hyperscalers are aggressively ramping up spending. In mid-2026, Morgan Stanley raised its combined Capex forecasts to $800 billion for 2026 and $1.16 trillion for 2027. These capital injections are being absorbed by chipmakers and investment banks through M&A deals and bond issuances.
Answer: In 2026, infrastructure will capture windfall profits; in 2027, global expansion will begin.
Data center construction is laying the foundation for a restructuring of the global economy. In the medium term, this supercycle is divided into two phases:
2026 Horizon (The Infrastructure Basis): The market is highly demanding of Big Tech earnings reports. Liquidity is heavily concentrated in suppliers of chips, memory, cooling, and networking components. Combined capex among market leaders will peak at $800 billion, while the rest of the business world is still figuring out use cases for technology deployment.
2027 Horizon (Global Expansion): The infrastructure deficit will ease, and the focus will shift to AI monetization in traditional sectors (where companies adopting AI are expanding their margins twice as fast as the market average). Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley expects the S&P 500 index to surge to 8,300 by mid-2027, with AI Capex breaking past the $1.16 trillion threshold.
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