01.04.202510:48 Analisis Forex & Kajian: US stock market: spike from strong support. Growth realistic

S&P500

Update on US stock market

Snapshot of benchmark stock indices on Monday:

• Dow +1%,
• NASDAQ -0.1%,
• S&P 500 +0.6%, S&P 500 at 5,612 trading in a range of 5,500 to 6,000

The S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0%) closed at or near their highs after bouncing back from earlier session lows. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) also showed growth after dropping 2.7% to the daily low, but still closed slightly below Friday's close. The initial drop in stocks reflected some volatility surrounding Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday.

Weekend headlines impacted investor sentiment after reports that the Trump administration is considering broader tariffs from April 2, including a 20% universal tariff on all imports from every country.

The news also triggered some buying of safe-haven Treasury bonds, which dissipated as stock sell-offs calmed down. The 10-year bond yield decreased by one basis point to 4.25% after hitting 4.19% earlier. The 2-year bond yield remained unchanged at 3.91% after hitting 3.85%. Many stocks participated in the recovery efforts after the decline, which led to the equal-weighted S&P 500 index closing 0.8% higher.

Mega-cap stocks largely remained outside the market recovery. NVIDIA (NVDA 108.38, -1.29, -1.2%), Microsoft (MSFT 375.39, -3.41, -0.9%), Amazon.com (AMZN 190.26, -2.46, -1.3%), and Tesla (TSLA 259.16, -4.39, -1.7%) were influential underperformers in this space. The price action of AMZN and TSLA anchored the consumer goods sector in negative territory, falling 0.2% from Friday.

The other ten sectors of the S&P 500 saw growth, led by consumer staples (+1.6%) and financials (+1.3%).

Year-to-date performance:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.3%
• S&P 500: -4.6%
• S&P Midcap 400: -6.5%
• Russell 2000: -9.8%
• Nasdaq Composite: -10.4%

Economic calendar on Monday

Chicago Business Activity Index for March: 47.6, vs. consensus of 45.3; previous value revised from 45.5 to 45.0.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, market participants will receive the following data:

9:45 AM ET: Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI for March (previous value 49.8)

10:00 AM ET: February Construction Spending (consensus 0.4%; previous value -0.2%), February Job Openings (previous value 7.740 million), and ISM Manufacturing Index for March (consensus 49.8%; previous value 50.3%).

Energy market

Brent crude oil is now trading at $74.90. Oil sharply rose to nearly $75 due to a strong US market recovery yesterday.

Gold reached a new all-time high of $3,150. The metal is carrying on its strong uptrend amid sharp actions by the new US administration in international trade (tariffs).

Conclusion The US market may show a wave of growth after bouncing off the year-to-date lows yesterday, and today's point is a good one for buying. The target for the S&P 500 index is 6,000. However, much will depend on US economic reports for March, which will be released starting today with the ISM manufacturing index. The report of crucial importance is the US nonfarm payrolls due on Friday.