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The cryptocurrency market has become dull. Bitcoin has reached its narrowest price range in several months, despite lingering concerns about the stability of US regional banks and the country's debt ceiling.
The range or difference between the high and low for the week ended May 21 was 3.4%. According to data tracked by analytics firm Glassnode, this is one of the lowest indicators in the past three years and can be compared to sluggish trading seen earlier this year, during a short period last month, and in July 2020.
"It is comparable to January 2023, and July 2020, both of which preceded large market moves," Glassnode analysts said via Twitter on Monday. "High volatility is likely on the horizon."
Recently, volatility indicators for bitcoin and ether based on options have also reached record lows. Narrow trading ranges indicate that neither bulls nor bears dominate the market. This typically happens when markets face competing influences and narratives.
While the ongoing US banking crisis contributes to a rise in presumed safe-haven assets such as BTC, the US debt ceiling standoff and a recovery in the dollar index suggest otherwise.
Ultimately, some factors may take a back seat, leading to a sharp expansion of the trading range or a strong movement in either direction. On the daily chart, it is worth noting that the main cryptocurrency is consolidating below the midline of a descending channel and the mirrored horizontal support level at 26,500, forming a descending triangle. Such patterns are usually broken downwards, which could bring bitcoin back to the lower trend boundary at around $25,000 per coin.
The $30,000 mark remains the key resistance level. Its breakout could pave the way for the asset's further medium-term gains. Amidst uncertainty, cryptocurrency traders and analysts wonder if the leading cryptocurrency can reach $30,000 by June 2023.
Some of them speculate that bitcoin may surge in the coming days, with an upward breakout being more likely. They believe that the asset will gain upside momentum, driven by the following reasons.
Firstly, despite the past few weeks, the overall macroeconomic environment has been improving since the beginning of the year. Secondly, the next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for early June. No further interest rate hikes are expected, which should serve as a strong buy signal for market participants.
Against this backdrop, optimistic analysts do not rule out a breakout before the next meeting of the Fed. A sideways movement without volatility spikes indicates an imminent price change.
The next few days will be crucial
Popular cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe is also optimistic. He believes that the next few days will be crucial for the future of BTC. According to him, the asset is likely to retest the 200-week moving average (MA) as support.
Michael van de Poppe assumes that a successful retest of this key technical indicator could indicate the correction is over. At the time of the quote, the 200-week moving average was close to $26,283.
"If you go back in history, the 200-MA retest is a great period to accumulate. In the past 6 months, bitcoin has been swimming beneath for a long period, making it the most undervalued since existence. Next week is make-or-break," he wrote on Twitter, adding that a fast breakout upwards would signal the end of a correction.
Van de Poppe also noted that a recovery in the key support level in a smaller timeframe could trigger a rally. If not, bitcoin might fall to $26,000 before rebounding.
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