23.10.202609:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Worst Period for Gold in the Last Three Months

Gold fell below $4,000 per ounce, hitting a more than three-month low. Intraday, the metal fell about 0.9% to below $3,990 — the lowest level since mid-July — after sliding nearly 3% on Thursday. Silver fell 1.2% to $53.90, while platinum and palladium edged up slightly.

A broad equity sell-off across several sectors triggered the move. Stocks continued to fall on Friday as investors exited AI-related companies, and Treasuries largely held the prior day's gains as money flowed into safe assets. Crucially, gold failed to attract safe-haven demand.

The market is increasingly worried about the sustainability of AI-related investments, a key driver of U.S. economic growth. As a result, traders are cutting bets on another Federal Reserve hike. The probability of a 25-bp increase at next week's meeting fell below 10%, after standing just under one in six a day earlier. Normally, falling yields and lower rate-hike odds help gold, but that didn't happen this time.

The reason is oil. Escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia raised the risk of wider supply disruptions in the Middle East and pushed Brent above $114 a barrel, roughly a 3% weekly gain. High energy prices keep inflation stubborn, so rate pressure does not ease, and gold cannot benefit from lower yields.

I don't think active buying at current levels is likely in the near term because the metal isn't responding to the yield drop. Broad risk reduction and persistent inflation concerns outweigh the benefit of easing yields. Since the U.S.–Iran conflict flared in late February, gold has lost more than one-fifth of its value. As long as equity sell-offs persist and oil remains expensive, gold will stay under pressure, and a test of $3,900 looks quite possible. A stabilization in stocks could restore gold's safe-haven role and halt the slide, but there are no signs of that yet.

As for the technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,062. That would set up a target at $4,124, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farther target is the $4,192 area. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of $4,008. If that succeeds, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold to a $3,954 low with a prospect of extending to $3,906.