15.10.202613:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Stablecoin market stalls at $309 billion

Despite yesterday's market slump, Standard Chartered has revised its stablecoin outlook. The bank now expects market capitalization to reach $2 trillion by 2030, two years later than its prior estimate, because the market has plateaued around $309 billion this year. Activity has not fallen: transaction volumes involving stablecoins continue to rise. That implies growth is driven not by new issuance but by higher turnover of existing coins.

The report identifies four distinct submarkets with different competitive dynamics. Tether's USDT dominates savings use cases in emerging markets; Circle's USDC leads payments in developed markets. On crypto exchanges, USDC and Ethena's USDe are strong, and USDC also leads a niche of transactions between AI agents. Standard Chartered expects the most intense competition in developed-market payments, where bank-issued stablecoins and new networks such as USDG and M^0 are attempting to displace existing payment rails.

The crucial takeaway is the combination of a supply plateau and rising turnover. Stablecoin supply typically signals fresh inflows into crypto, and its stagnation matches what we see in October: spot ETFs are losing money, and three fund categories suffered roughly $1.25 billion of outflows last week. In other words, increased usage has not replaced capital inflows, and the thesis that stablecoins will pull the market higher on their own is not yet confirmed. Winners are those who have secured niches with clear demand — primarily Tether in emerging markets and Circle in payments — while challengers lacking other incentives beyond reserve yield share are losing out.

My base case is that stablecoin supply will remain near $309 billion through year-end unless ETF inflows return and bond yields stabilize. A true catalyst for the next growth phase will be regulatory clarity and accounting rules that make stablecoins practical for corporates. Banking sector moves support this view: Standard Chartered has just launched BTC and ETH trading in the UAE. I'd watch two things closely: growth in supply as a sign that capital is returning to crypto, and who captures reserve income — that question will determine the balance of power among Tether, Circle, and new entrants.

Bitcoin technicals

Buyers are targeting a return to $82,900, which would open a direct path to $84,200 and then toward $86,000. A break above $86,000 would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers near $80,700. A decisive move below that area could quickly push BTC toward $79,400. A further target on an extended decline would be $78,100.

Ethereum technicals

Consolidation above $2,417 would open a straight path to $2,508. The next upside target is the $2,600 high. Clearing that would confirm strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, look for buyers around $2,339. A break and hold below that level could rapidly drive ETH toward $2,274. A deeper target in an extended sell-off would be $2,231.

What's on the chart:

• Red: support and resistance zones where the price is expected to either slow or accelerate
• Green: 50-day moving average
• Blue: 100-day moving average
• Light green: 200-day moving average

Crosses of — or the price tests of — these averages typically either halt moves or set the next market impulse.